It's time for the 2026 MIAA boys hockey tournaments. Things heat up fast for teams, as it's win-or-go-home. Seniors, this is it. Lose, and you won't be touching your skates for a very long time.
It's also the perfect time to make predictions. Coaches and players are more than welcome to use this as bulletin board material. Put it up in the locker room and throw it in my face when I'm wrong. Be my guest.
The brackets for Divisions 1, 2, 3 and 4 came out on Saturday. While I watched and ranked Canton and Tewksbury, two Division 2 powerhouses, throughout the season, I'm only going to predict Division 1.
What's interesting is that the last two seasons have featured a high-ranking team (No. 1 St. John's Prep in 2024, No. 4 Catholic Memorial) taking on a lower-ranking team (No. 11 Winchester in 2024, No. 14 St. John's Shrewsbury) in the championship.
It's easy to want to predict upsets, and I have some upsets here and there. But I wouldn't be shocked if this is the year where a lower seed doesn't go on a Cinderella run.
That doesn't mean it won't happen.
Attached below is my bracket along with my rationale.
Let's dive in.
No. 1 Catholic Memorial quadrant
This might as well be dubbed the Catholic Conference quadrant with Catholic Memorial, St. John's Shrewsbury, BC High and Malden Catholic.
I'll take North Andover over Bridgewater-Raynham in the preliminary game, but I don't see them getting past Catholic Memorial. Moving down, the hardest game to pick in this part of the bracket is clearly Wachusett and Winchester. Wachusett has been scorching this year at 18-1-1, but Winchester is way more battle-tested with a much tougher schedule. That said, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Wachusett's confidence will win out.
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I have St. John's Shrewsbury getting past Acton-Boxborough. A really fun, first-round matchup will be BC High and Malden Catholic. MC beat BC High, 2-0, on Jan. 11, but BC High stormed back and won 7-1 on Jan. 28. Give me BC High.
CM should have no issue getting past Wachusett in the Round of 16. St. John's Shrewsbury and BC High would be a fantastic game. BC High has beaten them both times this season (3-2 and 5-3). It's hard to beat a very good team three times in one season, so I'm picking the Pioneers.
CM vs. SJS in the Round of 8 — a rematch from last year's state title game. I want to go with SJS for the upset badly, but I don't see the Knights losing this early. Give me CM coming out of this side of the bracket.
No. 2 Xaverian quadrant
I'll take Wellesley over Medford in the preliminary game, but Xaverian should have no problem advancing past them. In the Marshfield-Natick matchup, I opted for Marshfield's firepower up front with seniors like Ben Berian and Brendan McLaughlin. I don't, however, see Marshfield beating Xaverian.
Belmont has historically been a very good tournament team (I predicted them to go on a run to the championship game last year), but it's been a down season. Pope Francis has also outscored Belmont 13-3 in its two wins over them this season. Give me the Cardinals winning that game. And then I picked St. Mary's Lynn over Bishop Feehan. St. Mary's has beaten Bishop Feehan three times this season (3-1, 5-1, 3-1). Pope Francis vs. St. Mary's would be a fantastic Round of 16 tilt given that St. Mary's beat the Cardinals, 7-3, on Jan. 10, marking the lowest point of Pope Francis' season. Pope has been better of late, beating St. Mary's Lynn on Feb. 18, 2-1. I'll take Pope.
This is where I have my first upset: I have Pope Francis taking down Xaverian to advance to the semifinals, which would be a rematch of the 2023 state final. Xaverian is stingy, but Pope's talent breaks through.
No. 3 St. John's Prep quadrant
For starters, I was surprised St. John's Prep wasn't the No. 2 team. Instead, the Eagles are at No. 3. I have them getting past Franklin. Arlington Catholic enters the tournament having lost its last four games, but I still think that was just a rough path. I have them taking down Chelmsford. St. John's Prep and Arlington Catholic just played on Feb. 12, with SJP winning, 4-2. While I normally would say that Arlington Catholic is due to win the next one, the Eagles are too good.
Hingham's had an up-and-down season by its standards, but it should have no issue with Shrewsbury. Things will get close with Weymouth, who had a phenomenal season, but I give the slight edge to Hingham. The game will still be much closer than Hingham's 6-3 win over Weymouth on Christmas Eve.
GIRLS MIAA BRACKETS:Â Division 1Â |Â Division 2
St. John's Prep vs. Hingham in the Round of 8. Now that's a heavyweight bout. Their only meeting was the first game of the season, when they tied, 4-4.
I have St. John's Prep advancing after playing a more structured, defensive game, winning something like 2-1.
No. 4 Arlington quadrant
Arlington was within a goal of going to TD Garden last year. Can the Spy Ponders finish the job this season?
They shouldn't have much trouble with Needham. Framingham, with top scorer sophomore Colin Walsh, should get past Lincoln-Sudbury. And while I almost picked Framingham for the upset, I don't see Arlington bowing out that early. Archbishop Williams has had a great season, so I see them beating Central Catholic in the Round of 32. But I don't see them getting past Reading, who have been one of the hottest teams in the second half. The Rockets won seven of eight.
That would set up Arlington-Reading as a public heavyweight bout in the Round of 8. Both teams have beaten each other this season, 4-0. I would bet anything the total goals won't come close to four in this matchup.
My pick: Reading wins a low-scoring battle, 1-0.
Final 4: No. 1 Catholic Memorial vs. No. 5 Reading | No. 2 St. John's Prep vs. No. 7 Pope Francis
My Final 4 matchups in my bracket would be Catholic Memorial vs. Reading and St. John's Prep vs. Pope Francis. So that's two top seeds and two "underdogs" — that's not chalk.
With CM and Reading, I've long said that the most effective opponent against a top private school is a top public school. Reading is fine, getting outshot 40-15 and squeaking out a 2-1 win. The Rockets are built to play hard-nosed, structured defense, led by senior defenseman Nate Vitarisi and senior goalie JT Coyne. Reading would play CM close, but I'd pick the Knights. Freshman goalie Jaxson Fleming is fine making 40 saves or 15 saves, and there's so much skill and speed up front. I'm taking CM.
St. John's Prep and Pope Francis met back on Dec. 27 in the Pete Frates Winter Classic championship, with SJP winning, 3-2. It was a close game then, and it would be a close game now. Both Pope and St. John's Prep have been hot in the second half, so that cancels out. Both teams have overcome adversity at different points in the season, so that also cancels out. On paper, however, I think Pope Francis holds the advantage. And while a CM-SJP (No. 1 vs. No. 2 ) final would be incredible, I give the edge to Pope Francis.
BOYS MIAA BRACKETS: Division 1 | Division 2Â |Â Division 3Â |Â Division 4
Championship: No. 1 Catholic Memorial vs. No. 7 Pope Francis
I had Pope Francis, which was No. 1 in the seedings, in the championship last year. Obviously, that didn't happen.
These two teams met twice this season. The first was a 2-2 tie on Dec. 13, while the Knights won the second battle, 3-1, on Feb. 14. Both teams have high-octane offenses. Pope has a little more size on defense, while CM has better skaters and puck-movers back there. Fleming is hard to beat in net, but Pope junior George Ramsey is more than a formidable opponent.
Here's the one difference: Every time I've watched the Knights this season, they've looked a tier above. Repeating is hard, but I predict that CM will do it.
