The 2025 MIAA boys hockey tournaments are here. For teams, things get even more serious. It's time to lock in, win and advance. Lose and you're done.
Those days are long gone for me. This time of year is about making predictions and giving coaches and players an incredible amount of bulletin board material. I'm typically always right, though, so I'm not sure how much of this will be held against me.
*Ducks*
The brackets for Divisions 1, 2, 3 and 4 came out on Saturday. I only predicted Division 1 because that's what I covered the most throughout the season. As I've said in a number of my rankings, parity is the name of the game. There was a clear-cut No. 1 for most of the season, but the gap between No. 1 and everyone else closed considerably in the final weeks of the season.
While then-No. 1 St. John's Prep won the tournament last season, No. 11 Winchester was its opponent and was a goal (after the buzzer) short of forcing overtime in the final. No. 18 Arlington Catholic made it all the way to the Final 4 against Winchester and lost in overtime.
This is where things get weird, so it's extremely possible for lower seeds to go on runs.
Attached below is my bracket along with the method to my madness.
Let's dive in.
No. 1 Pope Francis quadrant
This was the hardest section to pick and, crazily enough, Pope Francis has the toughest path out of any top seed. Wellesley is typically a seed somewhere in the teens, while No. 16 Braintree and No. 17 Marshfield would both be good picks to upset a higher seed.
I have Xaverian beating Central Catholic, but Central Catholic had the hardest strength of schedule after No. 14 St. John's Shrewsbury in the final power rankings. Then comes the best Round of 16 matchup: Reading and Xaverian. Reading is stingy and plays great defense, but the Rockets have been cold down the stretch, which is why I went with Xaverian.
FANTASY: What would a New England prep 4 Nations tournament look like?Â
With Pope Francis and Xaverian in the Round of 8 game, I usually have a rule when it comes to two private schools facing off: the better one typically wins in the playoffs. I picked Pope Francis.
If any other top seed had this path, I'd pick them to get upset. But Pope Francis is too good.
No. 2 St. John's Prep quadrant
I have St. John's Prep having no issue with Andover. Natick and Weymouth is an interesting matchup. Given that Weymouth beat Natick, 5-3, on Jan. 4 at Natick, this feels like a good "upset" to select.
Where things get much more interesting is on the other side with Arlington-Franklin and St. Mary's Lynn-Waltham. Franklin lost a lot of talent from last season's team, but being a No. 26 seed was a surprise. They started the season 1-6-1, but won five of their final seven games. Will they upset Arlington? I don't think so. I do, however, think it's a close game. No. 23 Waltham had a very good season and picking them would be fun. But St. Mary's Lynn has goalie Matthew Smith Jr. Arlington and St. Mary's Lynn is a phenomenal Round of 16 matchup. I like both of these teams a lot, but I gave the edge to the goalie.
As for St. John's Prep and St. Mary's, they met once all season with the Eagles winning, 4-1. I wanted to pick St. Mary's for the upset badly...but I don't see St. John's Prep falling that early.
No. 3 Hingham quadrant
Hingham may have the easiest first two games of any top-four seed in the tournament. The Harbormen's first matchup is against Lincoln-Sudbury, who they beat 11-2 on Jan. 11. Then they get the winner of St. John's Shrewsbury and Burlington. I would've picked Burlington to win this game given how inconsistent SJS has been, but the Pioneers are slated to have star forward Daniel Menyalkin for this game. While I predict Menyalkin gets them the win over Burlington, facing Hingham next is a tough second act. I have Hingham winning that one.
On the other side, I think it's relatively smooth sailing for No. 6 Belmont. First, the Marauders face Bishop Feehan and then likely No. 11 Winchester. Belmont beat Winchester both times this season by a combined score of 7-2. Winchester had a terrific run last year but it's so hard to repeat that feat. Give me Belmont here.
Then there's Belmont against Hingham. Belmont won its only meeting with the Harbormen, 2-1, on Feb. 2. I was there and it was a relatively even game. Although it's hard to beat a good team like Hingham twice in one season, I have Belmont being good enough to do it.
FOLLOW THE GIRLS TOURNAMENTS: Division 1Â |Â Division 2
No. 4 Catholic Memorial quadrant
This quadrant has the No. 4 and 5 seeds, which makes it interesting. None of the first-round matchups raise alarm bells for me in terms of an upset (which is probably why they will somehow all be upsets). I have the higher seed winning all four of them.
For the Round of 16, Catholic Memorial has been so hot of late that I have it getting past Arlington Catholic, which had a heck of a run to the Final 4 last season as a No. 18 seed. In BC High vs. Archbishop Williams, I'm taking BC High. Head coach John Flaherty's team has also been hot and he's constructed a team built for this time of year.
So then we get to CM vs. BC High in the Round of 16 game. I know we're not predicting scores, but this has "1-0 final" written all over it. CM's offense is a little bit better, so I'll take the Knights in this one. Final score: 1-0.
Final 4: No. 1 Pope Francis vs. No. 4 Catholic Memorial | No. 2 St. John's Prep vs. No. 6 Belmont
In my bracket, the Final 4 matchups would be Pope Francis vs. Catholic Memorial and St. John's Prep vs. Belmont. While three of the top four seeds made it and it went rather chalk, I do think these are some of the best possible matchups.
Let's start with Pope Francis and Catholic Memorial. Pope Francis is deeper and has more high-end talent. And, as I mentioned with Pope Francis vs. Xaverian, when two private schools meet, the better one usually wins because to beat better teams in the MIAA tournament, teams have to be willing to pack it in, be heavily outshot and get great goaltending. While I have no doubt Jaxson Fleming will provide CM with great goaltending, Catholic Conference teams aren't usually willing to play that kind of game.
On the other side, Belmont will give St. John's Prep a very good game. While both teams have great goaltending in Ethan Bauer for Belmont and AJ Farese for St. John's Prep, Belmont has more firepower up front. The question will be: can St. John's Prep capitalize when the line of Adam Bauer, Leo Packard and Liam Guilderson isn't on the ice? Not enough to outscore that line. Give me Belmont.
Championship: No. 1 Pope Francis vs. No. 6 Belmont
This would be an outstanding game full of both older and younger high-end talent, as well as great goaltending. It was only two years ago that then-sophomore goalie Nick Ritchie led his team to a Division 1 state title and, in my bracket, he'd be back there again. Ritchie vs. Ethan Bauer would be a can't-miss game.
These two teams played twice this season. The first time was a 6-3 win for Pope Francis on Jan. 2; the second was a 2-0 win for Belmont on Feb. 19. This would be the rubber match.
FOLLOW THE BOYS TOURNAMENTS: Division 1Â |Â Division 2Â |Â Division 3 | Division 4
I'm going with Pope Francis. Their depth, strong defense and goaltending would finally be a match for Belmont's killer top line. In head coach Brian Foley's first year back, I have Pope Francis living up to No. 1 and winning it all.
