The New England boys prep hockey holiday tournaments are always a time to catch up with hockey minds from across the landscape. Everyone has the local tournaments highlighted.
NHL scouts, college coaches, junior hockey executives and scouts — everyone is around. Occasionally, an NHL general manager will stroll through.
So there I was on the final day of the Flood-Marr tournament in the corner of Milton Academy's athletic center, talking to an NHL scout, who will remain anonymous.
We were talking about the history of NHL Draft prospects in prep. With an increasing number of kids opting for junior hockey over finishing prep school, that meant they weren't playing their draft year in prep. This, the scout said, hurt the quality — and quantity — of NHL Draft prospects to watch in prep. He wondered how many NHL Draft prospects in prep's recent history actually went on to pan out.
That's when the lightbulb went off. I could see it in the scout's eyes.
"You should do a study," the scout said, "on how many kids drafted out of prep school actually made it pro."
I'd love to say I come up with all of my story ideas. But they're often born out of conversations like this one.
So I was determined. I wanted a big sample size — but not too big since the landscape is ever-changing. I settled on 2010 as the first year to begin the study.
I looked at players who were on NHL Central Scouting's final rankings and in prep. Players who had service time in prep but were elsewhere for their draft year were not included. An example: Will Smith (Lexington, Mass.), who played at St. Sebastian's in 2020-21 but was with the U.S. National Team Development Program for his draft year in 2023, wasn't included.
In my statistics, players who have yet to make it to college hockey or are still playing in college were not included.
An example: Ben Merrill (Hingham, Mass.), who was drafted out of St. Sebastian's by the Montreal Canadiens in 2024, just wrapped up his freshman year at Boston University. While he had a great season, there's no way to include him in NHL or AHL games played stats because he hasn't finished college yet.
Here are some important numbers to remember:
- 157 prep players were on NHL Central Scouting's final rankings from 2010 to 2025. Three of those players — Neil Shea, Joey Daccord and Tyler Wood — were in NHL Central Scouting's rankings while on a prep team in two seasons. So it's 157 total submissions, but 154 actual players.
- 61 of those 157 were drafted straight from prep; 8 were drafted in the following seasons after having gone undrafted in prep.
- Of those 61, 11 are ineligible because they are in college hockey or haven't yet reached it. Therefore...
- 50 players drafted from prep is our sample size for drafted players
- 95 of those 157 were on NHL Central Scouting's final rankings and not drafted
- 8 were later drafted
- 87 of the 95 never got drafted
- 21 of the undrafted players are still in college or haven't arrived in college yet. Therefore...
- 74 players who have gone undrafted from prep are eligible for this study
So, how many of these drafted players made it to the NHL and AHL? And what are the chances an undrafted prep player makes it to pro hockey?
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34 percent of the 51 players drafted straight from prep have played at least 1 NHL game
Of the 50 players, 17 have taken at least one shift in an NHL game. The most recent example is former St. Mark's defenseman Ian Moore (Concord, Mass.), who was taken in the third round by the Anaheim Ducks in 2020. In his first full pro season, he's been a regular on the Anaheim blue line.
Former Lawrence Academy standout Riley Duran (Woburn, Mass.) has played in two NHL games for the Boston Bruins, who drafted him in the sixth round of the 2020 NHL Draft. Other players with limited NHL games drafted out of prep since 2010 have been John Farinacci (one NHL game; Round 3, 2019), Jack Rathbone (28 NHL games; Round 4, 2017), Reilly Walsh (one NHL game; Round 3, 2017), Tyce Thompson (11 NHL games; Round 4, 2017), Max Willman (68 NHL games; Round 4, 2014), Danny O'Regan (30 NHL games; Round 5, 2012) and Rob O'Gara (33 NHL games; Round 5, 2011).
Nine of the 50 have played over 100 games in the NHL. In 2019, the Montreal Canadiens drafted St. Sebastian's defenseman Jayden Struble, and he's become a mainstay on defense. Kimball Union defenseman Jordan Harris (Round 3, 2018, Montreal) and New Hampton defenseman Michael Kesselring (Round 6, 2018, Edmonton) were picked in the same year and have both become NHL regulars.
Daccord, who was drafted in the seventh round of the 2015 NHL Draft by the Ottawa Senators, has become a mainstay in the Seattle Kraken net over the last three seasons.
Some of the big-time names drafted out of prep since 2010 are former Dexter Southfield forward Ryan Donato (Round 2, 2014, Boston), former Deerfield forward Sam Lafferty (Round 4, 2014, Pittsburgh), former Nobles forward Miles Wood (Round 4, 2013, Columbus) and former Nobles forward Kevin Hayes (Round 1, 2010, Chicago).
All four have carved out roles in the NHL for quite a while. Hayes has 446 points in 805 games since 2014, while Wood has 196 points in 567 games since 2015. Donato recently hit his productive stride in the NHL and has 257 points in 565 games. Lafferty has been an effective bottom-six forward since 2019 with 92 points in 378 games.
80 percent of the 50 players drafted straight from prep have played at least 1 AHL game
When people look back on drafts, most of the attention is spent on who made it to the NHL, and rightfully so. Players are drafted because a team projects them as a future NHLer.
READ MORE: 15 takeaways from NHL Central Scouting’s 2026 final rankings
But carving out a career in the AHL is a massive accomplishment, too. Those are usually players who have gotten a taste of NHL hockey but have been AHL regulars.
In all, 40 of the 50 drafted straight from prep have played at least one game in the AHL. While some have played very few games and have spent most of their career in the ECHL, overseas or are retired, there have been some players who have logged a lot of games in the American League.
Players like Farinacci, Duran and former Frederick Gunn forward Alex Jefferies (Round 4, 2020, New York Islanders) have become everyday AHL players. The same is true for Rathbone, Walsh and Thompson.
More recently, former Salisbury forward Lucas Mercuri (Round 6, 2020, Carolina) has become a regular with the AHL's Syracuse Crunch this season.
O'Regan has spent the last three seasons overseas, but logged 400 AHL games from 2016 to 2023. Former Kimball Union defenseman Doyle Somerby (Round 5, 2012, New York Islanders) has been in the KHL since 2022, but played 244 AHL games.
But what about the players who were never drafted out of prep?
6.7 percent of players who went undrafted out of prep played at least one NHL game
That's pretty bleak.
Of the 74 players undrafted out of prep after being on NHL Central Scouting's final rankings since 2010, only five went on to play NHL games — and two of those players were picked later.
Jimmy Vesey (Boston, Mass.) went undrafted out of Belmont Hill in 2011, but was taken in the third round by the Nashville Predators in 2012 after a full season with the EJHL's South Shore Kings. He has 626 NHL games to his name. The other was Aidan McDonough (Milton, Mass.), who wasn't picked out of Thayer in 2018, but was taken in the seventh round of the 2019 NHL Draft by Vancouver after a full season with the USHL's Cedar Rapids RoughRiders. He has spent the last three seasons in the AHL, but got six games with the Canucks in 2022-23.
The three names who weren't drafted out of prep — or ever — and have played in the NHL are former Hotchkiss defenseman Marshall Rifai, former Nobles defenseman Billy Sweezey and former Holderness defenseman Gavin Bayreuther.
Bayreuther, a 6-foot-2, left-shot defenseman, has logged the most NHL games of the group with 122. His last ones came in 2022-23 when he was playing regularly for the Blue Jackets. He spent this past season between the AHL's Chicago Wolves and Rochester Americans.
Sweezey's NHL time also came with Columbus in 2022-23, when he got nine games. He's primarily been an AHL player.
READ MORE:Â Ranking the best 2026 NHL Draft prospects in prep
Of the three, Rifai played in the NHL most recently, getting a game this season with the Toronto Maple Leafs. He also got two games with the Leafs in 2023-24. So far, those have been his only two trips to the NHL.
31.08 percent of players who went undrafted out of prep played at least one AHL game
Of the 74 players undrafted from prep, 23 played at least a game in the AHL.
Players like Rifai, Sweezey and Bayreuther have logged a lot of minutes in the AHL. Salisbury forward John Stevens (Springfield, Mass.) went undrafted out of Salisbury and was never picked. But after a strong, four-year career at Northeastern, Stevens posted 389 AHL games from 2016 to 2025. He spent this past season with Kiekko-Espoo in Finland's Liiga.
Former Dexter Southfield forward Matt Copponi (Round 7, 2023, Edmonton), former Berkshire forward Aidan Thompson (Round 3, 2022, Chicago) and former Dexter Southfield defenseman Ben Meehan (Round 5, 2020, Los Angeles) all went undrafted when eligible in prep, but were picked later. They have been logging time in the AHL.
A cool name in this bunch: current Choate head coach and former Avon Old Farms standout forward Mike Pereira. After a strong career at UMass, Pereira got three games with the AHL's Worcester Sharks in 2013-14 and 17 with the Utica Comets in 2015-16. He spent most of his professional hockey days in the ECHL.
What to make of these statistics
Hopefully, your head isn't spinning from the numbers.
My biggest takeaway is that a player drafted out of prep has as good a chance at playing in the NHL as an undrafted player out of prep has at playing in the AHL.
Players not drafted out of prep face longer odds — and that makes sense. When a player is drafted, that NHL team owns their rights. So long as they have a respectable college career, they will, at the very least, be given a shot in the AHL.
When a player isn't drafted, they have to overcome those prior notions that they weren't worth drafting. It's hard to beat perception, even if it was from years ago.
Every year, a handful of undrafted players are hot commodities on the college free agent front. But that's far from the majority.
READ MORE: What is the future of prospects playing their NHL Draft year in prep?
The other thing is that NHL scouts have more or less been correct on prospects. There have been some big misses, and more drafted players failed to make it to the NHL than those who actually wore an NHL jersey. But these mostly aren't first-round picks. These are the prospects in Rounds 3- 7, which are extremely difficult to hit on. Add in that they're 18 years old and likely won't be in the pro system for three to five years, and that's even more of a challenge.
With the way the hockey landscape is changing, with more and more players leaving for junior hockey earlier, that should become even more of a challenge.
