We've reached the semifinals of the NEPSAC girls Large School tournament.
Just four teams remain after Wednesday's quarterfinal craziness. The Large School bracket featured arguably the most excitement of the three tournaments.
You had No. 1 Thayer outlasting No. 8 St. Paul's, 6-3, in a back-and-forth barn-burner. Meanwhile, No. 2 Deerfield barely escaped No. 7 Milton with a 3-2 comeback win in overtime. No. 5Â Tabor scored two unanswered goals in the third to come back against No. 4 Phillips Exeter, 2-1. Lastly, No. 6 Kent forged a comeback with under a minute to go before knocking off No. 3 Berkshire, 2-1, in overtime.
I went 3-for-4 with my first-round predictions, nailing Thayer, Deerfield and Kent's wins. I'm 8-for-12 overall across each tournament. Of course, I'm back for more.
On one end, you've got an ISL battle between Thayer and Tabor. At the other, you've got a Housatonic showdown between Deerfield and Kent.
PREP BRACKETS: Girls Elite 8 | Girls Large School | Girls Small School | Boys Elite 8 | Boys Large School | Boys Small School
So, who will win? Let's dive into our predictions.
No. 1 Thayer vs. No. 5 Tabor
These two teams met once already this season with Thayer taking a 1-0 win on the road.
Tabor's best shot is pulling Thayer into another tight, opportunistic matchup, similar to that matchup on Jan. 22 and the Seawolves' comeback win over Exeter in the quarterfinals. Eric Long's group kept Exeter and its potent top line in check before capitalizing on chances in the third. Whether it's the likes of Lilly Shaughnessy (Medfield, Mass.) or Giuliana Polcari (Marshfield, Mass.), who came through in the clutch versus Exeter, or other top producers like Jen Birolini (Pembroke, Mass.) or Julianna Goffredo, the Seawolves will need timely scoring. Avery Olson (Rockport, Mass.) has had a strong year in net, and she'll have her hands full with Thayer.
ELITE 8: Predicting who will win in the semifinals
The Tigers, however, can explode for a slew of goals at any time. Look at the quarterfinals when they hung six on a St. Paul's team that was better than their No. 8 seed indicated. Kate Sullivan (Hingham, Mass.) and Morgan McGathey (Braintree, Mass.) scored a pair each, while Lydia Kealty (Norfolk, Mass.) and Veronica Taylor (Hingham, Mass.) each got on the board. Thayer has the depth in their top six to outscore anybody. Wren Abboud (Weymouth, Mass.) can get it done at both ends, too. The two-way center poses a strong matchup against Tabor's top skaters.
I've got to lean toward the hotter offense here.
Prediction: Thayer wins, 4-2
No. 2 Deerfield vs. No. 6 Kent
These two sides met once this season. Deerfield won, 3-0, at home.
Chloe Cleaves (Riverside, Conn.) is coming off a monster showing for the Big Green in the quarterfinals, in which she scored twice (including the late equalizer) and assisted Olivia Austen's (Darien, Conn.) overtime winner. Cleaves also scored against Kent on Feb. 24, and Gia Thompson had a goal and an assist. Campbell Krotee (Darien, Conn.) posted a 22-save shutout against Kent.
TAKEAWAYS:Â 18 observations from the NEPSAC girls quarterfinals
Kent must hold a deep Deerfield offense at bay and capitalize on their chances, just as they did against Berkshire. After a standout performance in the quarterfinals, freshman Aspen Devlin (Falmouth, Mass.) will need to go toe-to-toe with Krotee, too. The Lions also have momentum, winning five straight since the loss to Deerfield. Renee and Rachel Bishop have been on a tear. Renee has points in five straight with five goals and 14 points in that span, including the assist on Olivia Machan's game-winner against Berkshire. Rachel Bishop, meanwhile, had 12 points in four games on the blue line before being held off the scoresheet Wednesday. Eva Mayo and Kate McKiernan have had good stretches recently, too.
Deerfield was on the Elite 8 bubble for a reason, though. The Big Green's depth gives them an edge.
Prediction: Deerfield wins, 3-1
