Who doesn't love some predictions?
The 2025 NEPSAC girls Large School tournament kicks off on Wednesday. There will be a new winner this season with defending champion BB&N off to the Elite 8.
For those keeping score at home, I came out firing in my debut NEPSAC tournament predictions last season. I went a perfect 7-for-7 with the Elite 8, 4-for-5 in the Large School tournament and 3-for-5 with the Small School bracket, making for 14-for-17.
Should be pretty easy again, right?
Wrong. Playoff hockey is unpredictable, especially in one-game, win-or-go-home scenarios. Upsets always happen, but which matchups will provide them? Will it all go chalk?
Let's get into the predictions for the Large School quarterfinals.
No. 1 Thayer vs. No. 8 St. Paul's
Thayer has a legitimate case to make as the best team not in the Elite 8. Meanwhile, St. Paul's is likely better than an eighth seed in the Large School field. SPS also beat Thayer, 4-2, at the start of February. Will a similar game play out?
The Tigers have perhaps the best player in the region in Morgan McGathey (Braintree, Mass.), the NEPSAC's leader in goals and points. More importantly, they have impactful depth around her, whether it's Kate Sullivan (Hingham, Mass.), Maddy Call (Dedham, Mass.), Lydia Kealty (Norfolk, Mass.) and Wren Abboud (Weymouth, Mass.), a great defensive center. Thayer has far and away the highest-scoring offense in the field with 97 goals-for, while St. Paul's is second (83).
PREP BRACKETS: Girls Elite 8 | Girls Large School | Girls Small School | Boys Elite 8 | Boys Large School | Boys Small School
Meanwhile, the Big Red are playing some of their best hockey of the season, winning six of their last nine. They just took New Hampton to overtime of the Lakes Region championship. Kelli Mackey's group is deep, too, whether it's Erin Flaherty (Boston, Mass.), Charlotte Voge, Tess Mulkerron (Concord, N.H.), Maude Niemann, Caroline Humber (Concord, Mass.) and more. They've proven they can beat Thayer already, and they're hitting their stride.
But Thayer will be hungry with something to prove after barely missing the Elite 8, and they can outscore anyone in the bracket.
Prediction:Â Thayer wins, 4-2
No. 2 Deerfield vs. No. 7 Milton Academy
Deerfield, like Thayer, was an Elite 8-caliber team, especially in the second half of the season. Milton, meanwhile, has momentum after a solid month, going 5-3-1 in their last nine games and beating Nobles last time out. But Deerfield has momentum, too. They've won 14 of 18 games (14-3-1) since Dec. 20, beating Williston this week and taking Loomis Chaffee to overtime as they made one last push for the Elite 8.
The Big Green have three high-end defenders between Chloe Cleaves (Riverside, Conn.), Allie Corrieri (Devens, Mass.) and Keira Austen (Darien, Conn.), and they've got two forward lines that can carry the play, especially forwards Sophie Frost, Ava Giroux (St. Alban's, Vt.) and Olivia Austen (Darien, Conn.). Campbell Krotee (Darien, Conn.) gives them an advantage in net over a lot of teams in this bracket, too.
WHY EACH TEAM COULD WIN: Girls Large School breakdown | Girls Small School breakdown
Milton has a recipe for a success, though, with a strong first line that plays heavy on the forecheck with Mary Quatrale (Pembroke, Mass.), Jessie Ward (Dedham, Mass.) and Maddie Bonavita (Longmeadow, Mass.). They also have some strong puck-movers on the back end, too, with Susannah Ward (Dedham, Mass.) and sophomore McKenna Ruland. If they can effectively get the puck up ice quickly and create chances off the forecheck, the Mustangs could pull off an upset.
Still, there's a reason Deerfield was in the Elite 8 mix, and their depth shows through here.
Prediction:Â Deerfield wins, 5-1
No. 3 Berkshire vs. No. 6 Kent
Now, we get into upset territory. In their lone meeting this season, Kent beat Berkshire, 3-2, in overtime.
Both teams are playing their best hockey at the right time, and both have high-end players leading the charge right now.
Berkshire's loss to Tabor to close the regular season snapped an eight-game winning streak. Sophia Busa has seven goals and 10 points in seven games since Feb. 5, while Maddy McCready has consistently been clutch setting her teammates up throughout the year. They've also got a strong record against quality teams this season, be it wins over Deerfield and New Hampton, a tie with Groton or tight losses to Deerfield, Williston and these same Lions.
ELITE 8 PREVIEW: Breaking down every team in this year’s bracket
Kent, however, is rounding into form with four straight wins and wins in seven of nine. It's been a huge bounce-back from a five-game skid at the end of January. Renee Bishop has been a huge factor in their success of late. The skilled playmaker dictates the play and has been on a tear with 15 points (nine goals) in her last nine games. Getting Eva Mayo back from injury last month has been key, too. That's not to mention having two productive blue-liners in Rachel Bishop and Kate McKiernan.
Both are starting to peak at the right time. It's close, but I think Kent's torrid stretch continues.
Prediction:Â Kent wins, 2-1
No. 4 Phillips Exeter vs. No. 5 Tabor
I badly want to pick Tabor for the upset here, but I'm still leaning toward Exeter.
Both teams have good goaltending, be it Exeter's Allie Bell (Rowley, Mass.) or Tabor's Avery Olson (Rockport, Mass.). Both teams have strong No. 1 defenders who can do it all between Tabor's Adeline Paskowski (Plymouth, Mass.) and Exeter's Grace Riley.
In the end, this comes down to which offense can shine through.
The Seawolves have gotten impact production from several forwards, especially Jen Birolini (Pembroke, Mass.; 13 goals, 21 points), Julianna Goffredo (10 goals, 16 points) and Giuliana Polcari (Marshfield, Mass.; 10 goals, 15 points). Young freshmen like Dawson Stiles (Hamilton, Mass.) and Sofia Nardelli (Cranston, R.I.) have been good pieces, too.
MVP CANDIDATES: 18 players who could win MVP in the Elite 8
But Exeter's depth and the production in the top six has the edge. Maria Gray (17 goals, 39 points) leads one of the best trios in the bracket with Paisley Meyer (Greenland, N.H.; 12 goals, 30 points) and Erin Sears (Cornwall, Vt.; 13 goals, 29 points). Behind them, Lauren Xu (nine goals) and Emma Shu (12 points) have provided strong depth. Dominique Reiher is a skilled prospect who can create offense as well, even if it hasn't led to gaudy production.
Prediction: Exeter wins, 4-1
