Predicting the MIAA boys hockey championships

It might as well be Christmas.

On Sunday, March 17, thousands will celebrate St. Patrick's Day in and around Boston. But thousands of others will flood TD Garden for the MIAA hockey championships.

The entire MIAA season has led to this. Players will look to jump over the final hurdle before achieving their dream of winning a state title.

Full disclosure: After a string of incredible picks in the NEPSAC boys playoffs (13-5), I went 0-3 on championship day. Am I not a big-game player? Do I not perform when it matters most?

My goal is to change the narrative with these championship picks.

Let's dive in.

Click or tap here to access the full schedule for the 2024 MIAA hockey championships

Division 1: No. 1 St. John's Prep vs. No. 11 Winchester

There's no denying that St. John's Prep is on a roll. It's been easy sledding for the Eagles so far. A 6-2 win over No. 32 Lincoln-Sudbury. A 7-1 win over No. 16 Wellesley. A 3-0 win over No. 8 Hingham. A 4-0 win over No. 4 Xaverian.

And it's not at all a surprise.

SJP is solid everywhere. The top line of senior captains Jake Vana (Boxford, Mass.), Christian Rosa (Lynnfield, Mass.) and Johnny Tighe (Reading, Mass.) has been dominant, as displayed in the Eagles' takedown of rival Xaverian in the Final Four. All three chipped in with goals. They consistently made the right plays at the right time. They're almost impossible to prevent from hemming teams in their own end.

On defense, senior Brady Plaza (Danvers, Mass.) is the leader. His speed and puck-moving abilities are elite for this level. Senior captain Jack Doherty (Marblehead, Mass.) provides stability. The defensive core makes it difficult for teams to get good shots on junior goalie AJ Farese (Middleton, Mass.), who has been phenomenal this season.

DOMINANCE: 7 takeaways from St. John's Prep's win over Xaverian

But Winchester is on a Cinderella run. Head coach Geno Khachadourian's team has needed overtime three times en route to TD Garden, taking down No. 22 Waltham, No. 6 Arlington and No. 18 Arlington Catholic in the extra session. Ironically, the Red and Black's "easiest" win was a 4-1 triumph over No. 3 Catholic Memorial in the Elite 8.

The story has been junior goalie Aiden Emerick, who has been sensational to get Winchester to this point. He will need to be at his very best to keep his team in it against SJP.

Up front, senior captains Danny Collins and David Strong drive much of the play. Sophomore Luke Sardone has been a breakout star, scoring the OT-winner against Arlington Catholic. Defensemen like sophomores Nolan Wrenn and Adam Krogmeier, as well as freshman JP Montgomery, are great puck-movers.

I wrote about this in my takeaways, but this isn't an easy matchup for SJP by any means. A public on a roll can cause trouble for the privates. But the Eagles are too good to lose this one.

Prediction: St. John's Prep wins, 4-1.

Division 2: No. 1 Tewksbury vs. No. 11 Boston Latin

This is almost the exact same matchup as Division 1 — a powerhouse No. 1 seed on a roll against a Cinderella No. 11 seed.

Boston Latin is a feel-good story. After being crushed by Duxbury, 7-0, in the Sweet 16 last season, the Wolfpack made it all the way to TD Garden.

Head coach Frank Woods' team has traveled quite the road to get here. After beating No. 22 Westwood, 4-0, in the Round of 32, they stunned No. 6 Billerica, 3-2, in overtime. The biggest win came in the Elite 8 when the Wolfpack upset No. 3 Concord Carlisle, 6-2, in the Elite 8 before edging out No. 10 Duxbury, 2-0, in the Final Four.

Senior defenseman Robert Banks has been huge in the tournament, scoring both goals against Duxbury and notching three points in the win over Concord Carlisle. Sophomore goalie Oliver Murphy has been great, too.

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But Tewksbury has been on a roll this season, only losing three games and winning its last eight. The Redmen have dominated since the tournament started, taking down No. 33 Agawam, No. 16 Plymouth North, No. 9 Auburn and No. 4 Woburn by a combined score of 28-7. They're a force.

The top line of seniors Matthew Cooke, Tyler Bourgea and Jeremy Insogna have been almost impossible to stop, with all scoring north of 50 points this season.

Another interesting thing to consider: Tewksbury was the No. 1 seed last season, too, after winning the 2022 state title. But the Redmen were upset by Norwood in the Sweet 16. There's no doubt this Tewksbury team has been on a mission.

Prediction: Tewksbury wins, 5-1.

Division 3: No. 1 Nauset vs. No. 6 Marblehead

Oh, look — another No. 1 seed in a championship game. And these two teams had vastly different paths.

Nauset has won 19 games in a row, and boasts an almost-perfect 22-1-1 record. Head coach Connor Brickley's team is fresh off a 6-0 drubbing of No. 12 Somerset Berkley Regional in the Final Four. Aside from a 2-1 win over No. 17 Marlborough, the three other victories have been convincing by Nauset.

A lot of the scoring has come from junior Logan Poulin and senior Julian Krivos — both had three-point games in the Final 4.

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It's also Nauset's first state title appearance since 2004, when it lost to Saugus, 6-0, in the Division 2 final.

On the other side, Marblehead started 0-6, not winning its first game until Dec. 30. But after a 10-3 win over Peabody on Jan. 13, head coach Mark Marfione's team has gone 13-1-1, including a path through the tournament that has featured upsetting No. 3 Scituate in the Elite 8 and No. 2 Shawsheen Valley Tech in the semifinals.

Can they make it three in a row and take down the No. 1 seed? With junior goalie Leo Burdge playing as well as he has, I say yes.

Prediction: Marblehead wins, 4-3, in OT.

Division 4: No. 5 Dover-Sherborn vs. No. 6 Hanover

This matchup might as well be decided on a coin flip. Both Dover-Sherborn and Hanover have gone on impressive runs.

Dover-Sherborn upset No. 4 Sandwich and then pulled off the upsets of all upsets, taking down No. 1 Winthrop, 2-1, in a shootout in the Final Four. Say what you want about shootouts, but Dover-Sherborn won. Head coach Alex Marlow's team was able to limit Winthrop's potent offense with goalie Andrew Goldstein making 37 saves. The senior has been outstanding in his final ride through the MIAA.

Junior forwards Brayden McKenna and Sam Hinckley, along with senior forward Andrew Marden have provided a lot of the scoring.

On the other side, Hanover's big upset came in the Elite 8, taking down No. 3 Norwell, 2-1. In the Final 4, Hanover blew a three-goal lead to No. 10 Stoneham, but won the game in double OT, 4-3.

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The one advantage Hanover has is history. After losing to Shrewsbury in the 2014 state final, head coach Jonathan Abban's team has won the state title every other year since. So, yes — that's 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022. Can they continue the trend in 2024?

Prediction: Dover-Sherborn rides the high of beating Winthrop, taking down Hanover, 3-1.