Predicting the MIAA girls hockey championships

Everything's come down to this.

On Sunday, while St. Patrick's Day celebrations take over the streets of Boston, a few of the state's top high school hockey teams will have plenty to celebrate during the MIAA state championships at TD Garden.

The action begins at 9 a.m. with the Division 1 girls championship. It's only fitting that the top two seeds, No. 1 Notre Dame (Hingham) and No. 2 St. Mary's, are facing off for the title. Meanwhile, the same applies to the Division 2 girls title game at 1 p.m., which features No. 1 Duxbury and No. 2 Falmouth. Those two games bookend the Division 4 boys championship at 11 a.m.

CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY: Here’s the full schedule for the MIAA state title games at TD Garden

I faired pretty well in my first go-around with predictions during the NEPSAC girls tournaments. I was a perfect 7-for-7 in predicting Elite 8 games. In the Large School tournament, I was 4-for-5, while going 3-for-5 with Small School matchups.

So, can I stay hot with my MIAA girls championship predictions? Let's dive in.

Division 1: No. 1 Notre Dame (Hingham) vs. No. 2 St. Mary's

For most of the season, these two teams were the top two Division 1 squads in our rankings, and such remains the case.

The Cougars and Spartans have gotten it done in different ways this season. Both have had great goaltending, but SMH has been much more high-flying, while NDA has stifled opponents.

NDA enters the final fresh off of two straight shutouts, taking care of No. 4 Malden Catholic, 3-0, in the Final 4 and No. 9 Peabody/Lynnfield/North Reading, 2-0, in the Elite 8. They rolled past No. 16 Braintree, 3-1, in the Sweet 16 and No. 32 Franklin, 7-1, in the Round of 32.

A massive part of their success is goalie Ava Larkin (Canton, Mass.), one of the state's best. In front of her, stalwart defenders Sarah Francis (Scituate, Mass.) and Lucy DelGallo (Braintree, Mass.) have offered a versatile one-two punch on the blue line. Offensively, Caroline Hartnett (Hingham, Mass.) is scoring over a point per game in the tournament with goals in three of four games, too. Sarah White (Hanover, Mass.) and Devon Moore (Milton, Mass.) have seen their terrific seasons continue into the tournament. Hartnett has goals in two straight, and Moore had a goal and an assist in the semis.

Meanwhile, St. Mary's has had some close calls to get to this point. They took care of No. 31 Weymouth, 5-1, in the first round before No. 18 Boston Latin, 4-2, in the Sweet 16. Entering the final, the Spartans are coming off back-to-back 2-1 wins, first over No. 7 Shrewsbury and then over No. 11 Archbishop Williams in overtime. Both games could have gone either way, too.

TAKEAWAYS: Here are 10 standouts, observations from St. Mary’s overtime win over Archbishop Williams

Goaltender Gianna Tringale (Danvers, Mass.) has been fantastic in the tournament, especially against Archies. She made 39 saves. Meanwhile, top-scorer and freshman Bella Freitas (Everett, Mass.) has flat-out dominated. She has seven goals in four tournament games. Linemates and fellow freshmen Keira Twomey (Melrose, Mass.) and Alyssa Norden (Danvers, Mass.) have been productive as well. Vanessa Hall (Saugus, Mass.) and Regan Sullivan (Melrose, Mass.) have eaten minutes on defense.

The Spartans were gassed as things wore on against Archies, though, dressing just 13 skaters. They've also been without Kasey Litwin (Swampscott, Mass.) on defense.

St. Mary's offense can outscore anybody, putting up 107 goals on the season, the most in D1 girls. But if there's anyone that could stop the Spartans, it's NDA. The Cougars' 22 goals-against this season are the fewest in D1 girls and the third-fewest in the entire MIAA — boys and girls.

I really want to pick St. Mary's, but there's no guarantee they get players back into the lineup. NDA will have a huge edge defensively if Litwin remains out.

Prediction: NDA wins, 3-2.

Division 2: No. 1 Duxbury vs. No. 2 Falmouth

Much like St. Mary's and NDA, Duxbury and Falmouth set the standard in Division 2 all season.

The top-seeded Dragons enter Sunday in search of a second straight title. They beat Canton, 5-2, last season. Meanwhile, the Clippers will play in their first state final since 2015, when they beat Wellesley, 3-2, in overtime.

Duxbury took down No. 5 Algonquin/Hudson, 3-1, in the Final 4 after outlasting No. 9 Milton, 2-1, in the Elite 8. They took care of No. 32 Latin Academy/Fontbonne, 5-1, in the Round of 32, and No. 17 Gloucester, 4-1, in the Sweet 16.

Sophomore Addy Harrington has had a productive tournament. She's coming off two goals in the semifinals after two goals and an assist against Gloucester. Junior Zoey Madigan has also been fantastic. She scored both goals against Milton and had a pair against Gloucester. Meg Carney has been strong as well. Maddie Greenwood is a constant scoring threat on the top line, too. She scored twice in last year's title game. In net, the Dragons have relied on Anna McGinty, who's been among the state's top goalies.

GIRLS BRACKETS: Division 1 | Division 2

From Duxbury's experience, we go to Falmouth's youth. The Clippers have been a fascinating case this season with 17 skaters on the roster, including nine freshmen and one eighth-grader. They have one of the most potent offenses in the entire MIAA with 130 total goals this season, the second-most in the MIAA. That's been on display throughout the tournament. They beat No. 31 Newburyport, 10-2, in the Round of 32 and No. 15 King Philip, 5-2, in the Sweet 16.

No. 7 Canton gave them a scare in the Elite 8, but Falmouth got the job done in double overtime for a 4-3 win. In the semis, they put a stop to No. 11 Marshfield's run with a 2-0 win, thanks to a 24-save shutout for freshman goalie Aspen Devlin.

Devlin has been a major factor this season, and she's found another gear in the tournament. Meanwhile, it's Falmouth's most experienced players that have made the biggest impacts on offense. Juniors Rylie Devlin and Casey Roth are both over two points per game this season. Each has remained red-hot in the tournament, along with senior Avery Johnson. Rylie Devlin came through with the winner over Canton. Freshman Maeve Turner has been fantastic, too.

THE TOURNAMENTS: 10 takeaways from both MIAA girls tournaments so far

Duxbury can win any style of game (they rank third in total goals in D2 girls and have allowed the fewest goals of any team in the MIAA). Falmouth can seemingly score at will at a moment's notice. This is a very close call, but I've got to lean toward Duxbury's experience and depth. McGinty and her previous experience backstopping a title could be the difference-maker.

Prediction: Duxbury wins, 4-2.