The MIAA hockey tournaments are here.
So, it's a perfect time to get a head start on the "bracketology" that will be at the front of everyone's minds in just a few weeks during March Madness.
For those keeping score at home, I came out firing in my NEPSAC tournament predictions last season. I went a perfect 7-for-7 with the Elite 8, 4-for-5 in the Large School tournament and 3-for-5 with the Small School bracket, making for 14-for-17. Naturally, I decided to try my luck in the MIAA tournaments this year.
Should be pretty easy, right?
This is the part of the hockey season where unpredictability thrives. In a win-or-go-home, one-game-for-the-rest-of-your-life scenario, anything can happen. Lower seeds can catch fire. Higher seeds try to put the finishing touches on strong seasons.
Attached below are the Division 1 and 2 brackets, along with my picks and a little bit about my thought process. Feel free to use these picks as bulletin board material, although I doubt any of these will be wrong. Like I said, picking brackets 100 percent correctly is pretty easy. I digress.
Let’s dive in.
Division 1
No. 1 Hingham quadrant
For the most part, this is chalky. Hingham, Belmont and Reading should handle their first-round opponents, although I would be weary of Arlington Catholic. AC gave Belmont a scare earlier this month, losing 1-0, and they've played other good teams closely. The Marauders will get it done, though.
Between Arlington and Shrewsbury, it's hard to call a No. 17 beating a No. 16 an upset. Kelsie Partridge and Libby Corsetti on the top line, combined with goalie Maddie Moscatel, will lead the Spy Ponders to a first-round win. They'll give Hingham a fight in the Round of 16, too, but the Harborwomen are just too good. They're headed to the quarterfinals.
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Between Belmont and Reading, I'm taking Reading. The season series between the two was tight. Belmont took a 4-3 win in overtime, and they settled for a 3-3 tie later on. But the Marauders have struggled to close games down the stretch, going 2-1-3 since Feb. 5 and taking their first loss of the year in the regular-season finale. Reading has momentum on its side, winning three straight and dealing Methuen/Tewksbury its first loss in an upset in the regular-season finale. Both teams match up well, but I'll lean toward momentum and Reading learning from the previous two meetings with Belmont.
Momentum will only get the Rockets so far, though, as they run into the juggernaut Harborwomen. Hingham's top two lines could be first lines on any team in the state. Caroline Doherty, the state's best player, has been practically unstoppable. Izzi Puleo and Izzy McGarr have each had strong seasons in net. They also have two top-tier defenders in a puck-mover like Shea Richardson and a shut-down presence like CC Flynn. Hingham moves on.
No. 2 Notre Dame (Hingham) quadrant
Things start to get a little more interesting here.
I expect Notre Dame (Hingham), Bishop Feehan and Andover to have no issues in the Round of 32. That leaves an upset for Winthrop over Bishop Stang. Both offenses are comparable, but Winthrop's plus-40 differential has an edge over Stang's plus-28. Senior Talia Martucci (18 goals, 34 points) can take over a game, and the Vikings have other ways to beat teams outside of her, too.
Unfortunately, Winthrop's luck runs out against NDA. The Cougars have a great blend of youth, experience, skill and defensive structure. Erin Kral (Whitman, Mass.) is one of the state's best in the crease, too, with a .949 save percentage and a 1.16 goals-against average. Between Bishop Feehan and Andover, I'll give the edge to Feehan. Both teams have solid depth, but Chloe Bryda (Cumberland, R.I.) is a game-breaker for the Shamrocks with 29 goals and 43 points. The same goes for Georgia Murray (North Attleboro, Mass.), who has 51 points (19 goals). Goalie Aviva Olitsky (Cumberland, R.I.) is having a great season, too with a .947 save percentage and 1.40 GAA.
So, in the battle of high-scoring offense and defensive structure, who wins between NDA and Feehan? The Cougars have already proven they can shut down Bishop Feehan this season, beating them 3-0 at the Tenney Cup. They have the horses to keep up on the scoreboard, and their size and strength on the back end will show through.
No. 3 Malden Catholic quadrant
I had a tough time with this one.
Malden Catholic, St. Mary's, Methuen/Tewksbury and Billerica/Chelmsford should each take care of their first-round matchups. Then, things get interesting.
St. Mary's is playing their best hockey right now. They're a young team with good goaltending and still have plenty of key experience from last winter's championship run. I've got to give the edge to MC, though. Megan Mullarkey (Wilmington, Mass.) has had a great season in net, while defender Ava Baker (North Reading, Mass.) commands the ice in all three zones. The Lancers' ability to roll three impactful lines gives them an advantage, too.
GIRLS MIAA BRACKETS:Â Division 1Â |Â Division 2
Then, we have the battle between conference foes in Methuen/Tewksbury and Billerica/Chelmsford. The Red Rangers took both meetings this season by a slim, 1-0 margin. It's hard to beat a team three times in one season, but I think M/T, who was undefeated until the regular season finale, will make it a season sweep of the Lindians. B/C has the more potent offense, but the Red Rangers have proven time and time again that they can pack it in, cash in on their opportunities and win tight games. That's vital in the MIAA tournament.
So, between MC and M/T, who moves on to the Final 4? I badly wanted to pick Methuen/Tewksbury for the reasons above, but Malden Catholic has been too good this season in every type of game. They're battle-tested, and their depth could overwhelm the Red Rangers' defensive effort.
No. 4 Haverhill/Pentucket/North Andover quadrant
I also struggled to pick who would come out of this part of the bracket.
HPNA should have no issue with Franklin, and the same goes for Archbishop Williams against Brookline and Peabody/Lynnfield/North Reading against Waltham. Natick versus Shawsheen/Bedford/Lowell is an interesting one. Both teams are red-hot entering the tournament. Shawsheen does have some game-breakers in sophomores Rebecca Sobol (28 goals, 48 points) and Violet Lorusso (21 goals, 47 points), Natick is a little more battle-tested. I'll give them the edge.
In the Round of 16, I'd expect HPNA to handle Natick, but Archies and PLNR pose one of the more intriguing matchups in the bracket. PLNR has a shorter bench than Archies, but they've got the all-important goalie in Alyse Mutti (North Reading, Mass.), who matched her program record for shutouts (10) this season. She's capable of stealing a game, but Kate McLeish (Dedham, Mass.) is excellent in her own right for Archies. The Bishops also have a major edge with their depth, especially in the top six. They'll move on.
In the quarterfinals, it was tough to not back HPNA after I highlighted them among sleeper teams earlier this week. Both they and Archies have high-end talent and good goaltending. For me, this comes down to depth. Archies has the edge there again.
Final 4: No. 1 Hingham vs. No. 5 Archies | No. 2 NDA (Hingham) vs. No. 3 Malden Catholic
Each of these four teams is good enough to win the state title, as were some of the teams they beat in the quarterfinals.
Each has it all. Elite talent? Check. Good goaltending? Check. Depth? Check.
Archies has been one of the best teams in the state since a sluggish start to the season, and they've got lots of experience on the roster from last winter's run to the semis. Caroline Batchelder (Braintree, Mass.) and Shea Nolan (Quincy, Mass.) on the first line as well as Julie Murphy (Canton, Mass.) and Izzy O'Brien (Holbrook, Mass.) on the second line each make for terrific one-two punches. In the same vein, I've got to lean towards Hingham's Doherty and Addy Garrity as well as Callie Crean and Hannah Lasch. If Archies can shut down Doherty, Lasch and Crean are just as capable of taking over a shift. Garrity and Lasch both play excellent 200-foot games down the middle, too. In their lone meeting this season, the Harborwomen won, 4-3. Hingham still has the slightest edge.
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What about the battle between the two top private schools in the state? MC and NDA met once this season, settling for a 1-1 tie. Each has only lost to good teams this season. NDA fell to Hingham (twice) and Archies, while MC lost to Hingham twice. Both sides are battle-tested, playing the hardest schedules in the MIAA. It's about as even a matchup as there is in the field, but the Lancers have proven they can win in tight games. I think Baker's clutch gene comes through once again. Give me MC by the slimmest of margins.
Championship: No. 1 Hingham vs. No. 3 Malden Catholic
The Battle of Hingham certainly would have brought the juice, but so doesn't another classic public vs. private matchup for the state title.
Like I said previously, it's hard to beat a team three times in one season. Hingham took down MC, 3-1 and 5-4, in their meetings this season, and it took some late heroics from Doherty to complete a comeback in the rematch. As good as MC is throughout the lineup, I've got to go with Hingham again. They're just more high-flying up front. It will not be easy for the Harborwomen, but they'll live up to the No. 1 billing.
Division 2
No. 1 Westwood quadrant
Save for one massive upset, this was pretty much chalk. Westwood should take care of Walpole, and Falmouth should handle Whitman-Hanson/Silver Lake. Then, it gets intriguing.
I've got No. 17 Norwell/Scituate/Abington over No. 16 Leominster. NSA played the tougher schedule in the Patriot conference, managing to finish second behind Hingham and ahead of Duxbury and Marshfield. Both teams are hot coming into the postseason, but I lean toward battle-tested NSA. After that, I've got Londmeadow beating Auburn. That's right. No. 25 over No. 8. I wrote about Longmeadow among my sleeper teams, and I've mentioned them on the podcast. No one in Division 2 played a harder schedule, and they gave good teams fits, be it PLNR, Algonquin/Hudson, Winthrop and others. They also tied Auburn, 1-1, earlier this season. The Lancers are battle-tested with the best of them, and I think they pull off an upset.
FOLLOW THE BOYS TOURNAMENTS:Â Division 1Â |Â Division 2Â |Â Division 3Â |Â Division 4
Unfortunately for Longmeadow, their luck will run out against a high-flying Falmouth group. Casey Roth, Rylie Devlin and Maeve Turner can score with the best of them, and they'll overwhelm the Lancers.
After Westwood takes care of NSA, I think they'll take down Falmouth, last year's runners-up. Hardly any team in the MIAA has been able to score like the Wolverines this season, and I think they'll be able to win a potential track meet with Falmouth.
No. 2 Duxbury quadrant
Like the first quadrant, this one is fairly chalky except for one game.
Duxbury, King Philip, Marshfield and Sandwich will take care of their first-round matchups.
Beyond that, Duxbury's depth and experience on both sides of the puck will be enough to dispose of a young KP squad. Then, I've got a No. 10 over a No. 7 with Sandwich over Marshfield. Sandwich has the edge in strength of schedule, and they put up strong fights against Hingham (4-3 loss and 2-0 loss), Duxbury (2-2 tie and 2-1 loss), NSA (2-1 loss and 4-0 win), Milton (3-2 loss), Martha's Vineyard (a pair of 2-1 wins) and more. It hasn't been all about one player, either. Sandwich has had balanced production throughout the lineup between Harper Penna, Elisabeth Stutzman, Casey Pestilli and more.
For the reasons I took Duxbury over KP, I've got the Dragons moving past Sandwich and into the semifinals.
No. 3 Woburn quadrant
This is where things got really interesting for Division 2.
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The higher seeds should prevail in the first round, then we get into the upsets. I'll take No. 14 Nauset/Monomoy over No. 3 Woburn to reach the quarterfinals. Both teams have made it through difficult schedules, but junior Gaby Bassett is among the Cape's most productive players. She can score in multiple ways from anywhere in the offensive zone. She can help lift the Warriors to an upset.
From there, this is Milton's bracket. The Wildcats are red-hot. They're unbeaten in 14 straight and have a ton of confidence entering the tournament. Milton has plenty of firepower up front with Sabrina Stone, Nayeli Thayer and Molly Murphy, while Caera Hart is having a good season in the crease. After getting past Plymouth South, the Wildcats will knock off Nauset to head to the quarterfinals.
No. 4 Algonquin quadrant
Things remain interesting in this part of the bracket.
I've picked the higher seeds to make it through the Round of 32 again. Algonquin/Hudson should advance past Medfield. Burlington will have its hands full with Martha's Vineyard, but the Lady Devils will make it to the quarterfinals.
In the quarters, I've got No. 5 Burlington moving past No. 4 Algonquin/Hudson. Burlington is on fire, playing their best hockey at the right time. The Red Devils have won eight straight since Feb. 1. They've taken down quality teams like Winthrop, Falmouth and Canton over this stretch, too. Algonquin, meanwhile, is 1-3-1 in their last five games. Burlington's 95 goals-for are the second-most in MIAA girls hockey. I'm going with the hot hand and taking Caitlyn Tremblay and the Red Devils.
Final 4: No. 1 Westwood vs. No. 5 Burlington | No. 2 Duxbury vs. No. 6 Milton
This is where we get back to the chalk.
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Burlington and Milton's hot streaks will meet their demise in the semis. If anyone can outscore Burlington, it's Westwood, who led the entire state with 108 total goals. Skilled power forward Kate Sullivan leads an offense that has so many ways to beat teams, along with Maggie Ash, Julia Marino and Bridget Lewis. Liz Levering looks like a dynamic prospect on defense, too.
I'll echo the same reasons as I did earlier for Duxbury, too. The Dragons are the total package. They're deep on both sides of the puck. They're experienced. They've got goaltending. The list goes on. Duxbury moves on for a bid at a three-peat.
Championship: No. 1 Westwood vs. No. 2 Duxbury
I know what you're thinking. "No. 1 versus No. 2, again?" You've got the high-flying Wolverines of Westwood against the dynastic Dragons of Duxbury.
This comes down to experience. I'm going with Duxbury for the three-peat.
The Dragons can win any style of game. Only Longmeadow played a tougher schedule in Division 2 than Duxbury. They've gone up against top teams like Hingham (3-2 loss and 2-2 tie), NDA (lost twice), Archies (2-1 win), St. Mary's (2-1 win), Malden Catholic (2-1 loss and 3-2 loss), Milton (4-2 win), Marshfield (2-2 tie and 2-1 win), Sandwich (6-0 win) and NSA (6-3 win).
Dan Najarian's group is battle-tested. The sophomores, juniors and seniors have critical experience from previous title runs, and there are impact players throughout the lineup. You've got Meg Carney, Maeve Gallagher, Zoey Madigan, Addy Harrington, Ceci Tremante and Maeve Murphy up front. On defense, Sami Norton is an excellent skater and can control the game in all three zones. Alannah Gallagher is strong on the second pair, too. Carina Perry has had a good season in net as well.
