We're into February and the New England boys prep hockey playoffs are less than a month away.
That means Elite 8 watch is on.
Kimball Union, which won the Elite 8 last season, is back in the mix. Cushing has been to the last two Elite 8 finals, losing both. The Penguins are in the ballpark this season, but definitely not a sure bet.
Last season, St. Sebastian's entered the final month 13-6-1 and was a bubble Elite 8 team. The Arrows found their way to the No. 8 seed, almost taking down Cushing in the quarterfinals.
There are a plethora of bubble teams (that's where the fun is) this season, along with many teams who will be top contenders to win the big dance.
The Elite 8 is picked through an algorithm called JSPR, comparable to the PairWise rankings that help set the NCAA tournament field. I picked the top 16 teams and made my case for why each has a shot at being in the Elite 8 dance.
All of these teams were picked according to the projected final JSPR as of Thursday, Feb. 6.
Let's dive in.
Dexter Southfield (16-2-0)
Why they'd be in:Â No doubt here. Dexter has been the top team in the region for a while. Their only losses came to St. Mark's and Cushing. Outside of Andover and Holderness, the rest of their schedule isn't too difficult either. It would be an epic collapse if Dexter fell out of the Elite 8 race. I don't see that happening.
Why they can make a run: Offense, offense and more offense. Dexter is deep up front and can outscore anyone. Their X-factor will be in net with juniors Colin Davis and Kyle Ready. Both have been strong this season and Davis has the experience of bringing Dexter to the Large School final last season.
Deerfield (14-4-0)
Why they'd be in:Â Deerfield opened the season 6-0-0 but then stumbled in the Flood-Marr with losses to Andover, Kimball Union and Salisbury. So, how are the Big Green this high? They have wins over Avon Old Farms, Salisbury, Cushing, Pomfret and Andover. The matchup against Avon Old Farms on Feb. 15 will be big.
Why they can make a run:Â Older teams tend to have more success in the postseason and Deerfield is old. Seniors Justin Tavares, Drew Keiver and Lance Roberts (Weare, N.H.), along with postgrads Oliver Duininck and Ben Paterson (Franklin, Mass.) have been top producers up front. The defense is led by three seniors in Zachary Chehade, Pierce Lapham and Ryan Diffley (Old Saybrook, Conn.), along with junior Nate Watson. Junior Elliot Lennon has quietly been really good this season. This feels like a team that could make a lot of noise.
St. Mark's (14-2-2)
Why they'd be in:Â St. Mark's set a tone for its season when it upset Dexter Southfield on Dec. 6. After losing to Winchendon the next day, the Lions didn't lose again until Feb. 1 against Governor's. What boosted them so much was a three-game stretch in late January where they beat Rivers, Belmont Hill and St. George's. The big games remaining are against Groton, Cushing, Rivers and St. George's.
Why they can make a run:Â It starts with depth at forward. Led by junior Evan Nee (Arlington, Mass.) with 26 points, the Lions have four other forwards north of 20. St. Mark's has also gotten outstanding goaltending from senior Justin BriseBois this year. If that keeps up, St. Mark's checks all the boxes.
Belmont Hill (13-3-2)
Why they'd be in:Â Despite early losses to Nobles and Governor's Academy, the Sextants responded by going 8-0-2. They won the Lawrenceville Tournament in late December, too. Still to come are Phillips Andover, Rivers, Thayer and Nobles, which will be key in determining which tournament (and what seed) the Sextants will play in.
Why they can make a run:Â Sophomore forward David Bosco (Winchester, Mass.) has been red hot of late with 10 goals and 29 points so far. Junior forwards Jake Tavares (Belmont, Mass.), a Dartmouth commit, and Patrick Woods (Charlestown, Mass.) have been key cogs for head coach Brian Phinney, too. A top defensive pairing of Dartmouth commit Evan Jones (Arlington, Mass.) and Grayson Cohen (Weston, Mass.) may be the best in the region, while the goalie tandem of Keagin Wilson (Hingham, Mass.) and JJ Thibodeau (Waltham, Mass.) can always be counted on. This team doesn't have holes.
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Brunswick (14-3-2)
Why they'd be in: The Bruins didn't lose a game until Jan. 5. They were in the driver's seat for the region until they were swept by Dexter Southfield a few days later. Still, that doesn't dampen a 11-0-2 start too much. They do have some big tests down the stretch in Cushing, Berkshire, Salisbury and Taft. They've been one of the top teams all season and I don't see that changing.
Why they can make a run:Â Don't ever sleep on Brunswick being battle-tested. Head coach Mike Kennedy has his squad play a gauntlet of hard teams and tournaments. Brunswick isn't short on high-end talent either, as it has two of the best forwards in the region in '08s Joe Salandra and Mason St. Louis (Greenwich, Conn.). On defense, freshman Cam Minella has made a legitimate case for next season's U.S. National Team Development Program and Princeton commit Hampus Vandenberg has 18 points. Junior Dylan Lee-Stack has been one of the top breakout goalies in prep.
Kimball Union (18-4-2)
Why they'd be in:Â The Wildcats opened the season 12-1-1 with wins over Rivers, Kent, Deerfield and St. Andrew's College. They've stumbled of late, going 7-3-1 since that torrid stretch to start the season. Two matchups with Holderness, a date with Cushing and the Lakes Region Tournament will be the biggest indicator of whether they're in or out of the Elite 8.
Why they can make a run:Â It starts with senior goalie Blake McMeniman (Revere, Mass.) who led Kimball Union to an Elite 8 title last March. The injury bug hit in January, most notably claiming Corwith Simmers. Head coach Tim Whitehead hopes to have his No. 1 center back for the playoffs. Senior forward and Merrimack commit CJ Watroba (West Springfield, Mass.) has been excellent and senior defenseman Lucas Siomos has broken out with the second-most points for a defenseman in the region with 29.
Nobles (12-6-1)
Why they'd be in:Â I started this story on Monday and Nobles wasn't included in the projected final JSPR. But Wednesday's win over Thayer catapulted the Bulldogs into the No. 7 spot. Nobles' big wins have come against Kimball Union, Berkshire, Phillips Andover and Thayer. There are some questionable losses in there, but if Nobles can build off Wednesday's win and do well against Governor's Academy twice and Belmont Hill, it might just get in.
Why they can make a run:Â The Bulldogs rank inside the top 10 for goals in the region with 84 and it's easy to see why. Junior Billy MacAusland (Westwood, Mass.) has 45 points, while Yale commit Kyle O'Leary (Medfield, Mass.) has 43. The offense also features numerous other seniors in Ethan Cox (Westboro, Mass.), Dennis Davidson (Newton, Mass.), Teddy MacAusland (Westwood, Mass.), Matthew Welch (Boxboro, Mass.) and Ben Nakata (West Barnstable, Mass.) who are vital. Outscoring opponents shouldn't be an issue and with Justin Lee (Newton, Mass.), an '09, getting hot in net, head coach Brian Day's team could find itself on the inside of the Elite 8 when the final horn sounds.
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Salisbury (12-5-3)
Why they'd be in:Â Despite being our preseason No. 1, the Crimson Knights stumbled out of the gate with losses to Kent and then losing to Deerfield and Milton at the Flood-Marr Tournament. They lost to Culver on Jan. 3 and then went 8-0-1 until they fell to Berkshire, 1-0, on Feb. 1. The big matchups over the final month are Taft, Brunswick and Avon Old Farms.
Why they can make a run:Â Goaltending and defense. Senior Steven Luciano (New Canaan, Conn.) has been strong this season with a 2.41 GAA and a .915 save percentage. Junior Jordan Rittenberg has great numbers, too, with a 1.85 GAA and a .920 save percentage. Head coach Andrew Will's team has a solid defensive core in front of the netminders, as Salisbury ranks seventh in the region in goals against (42). What could hold the Crimson Knights back is their offense outside of seniors Connor Davis and Ryan Hedley has been quiet.
Berkshire (18-4-0)
Why they'd be in: Berkshire started out 9-0-0 before falling to Avon in the Avon Old Farms Christmas Classic championship. The Bears fell to Nobles at the start of January and then rattled off four straight wins. Recently, they lost to Choate and Hotchkiss but then beat Salisbury and Avon Old Farms. Don't worry — those results confuse me, too. Some other big wins include Kent and Taft. Their biggest matchup down the stretch will be Brunswick on Feb. 15.
Why they can make a run:Â Senior Kyle Boduc has been dynamite in net with a 1.61 GAA and a .926 save percentage. A great, high-end goalie makes all the difference in big games. Head coach Kevin Czepiel's team also has a true, go-to scorer in senior Duncan Thompson, who has 14 goals and 36 points in 21 games. I'll let you in on a little secret: A top goalie and a top scorer can help carry a team into the Elite 8.
Avon Old Farms (12-5-0)Â
Why they'd be in: Avon was much higher when this week started. But the Winged Beavers fell to Berkshire, 3-2, in overtime on Monday and lost to Westminster, 4-1, on Wednesday. Despite two early losses, Avon won its own Christmas tournament and won its next four after that. Recently, the Winged Beavers have lost three of their last four. Matchups with Deerfield and Salisbury this month will be massive in determining whether they're in or out.
Why they can make a run: The Winged Beavers are young, but that what makes them so dangerous — they're unpredictable. Junior Dartmouth commit Indiana Grossbard (Wilton, Conn.) has proven to be one of the top players in prep with 19 goals and 29 points in 16 games. Grossbard taking over games certainly helps their chances. Junior forward Jacob Jett has broken out along with sophomore forward Nico Ciardiello. On defense, senior James Odyniec (Wilton, Conn.) has been the anchor and junior Oskar Drabczynski, a Harvard commit, has been terrific. If junior Anthony Palmer (Lynnfield, Mass.) keeps up his recent play, anything is possible.
Phillips Andover (11-6-3)
Why they'd be in: The Big Blue won the Flood-Marr Tournament, which helped them quite a bit. But they stumbled upon returning to play in January, going 3-4-1 with losses to St. George's, Choate, Phillips Exeter and Nobles. They lost again on Wednesday night to Deerfield, which began a wild stretch against high-end teams. If Phillips Andover is going to make an Elite 8 run, they'll need to emerge with a winning record from the upcoming gauntlet of games against Belmont Hill, Dexter Southfield, Kimball Union, Governor's and Cushing.
Why they can make a run:Â Andover's two offensive leaders are seniors Grayden Robertson-Palmer (Dartmouth commit) and Rui Han (Yale commit). Both can take over a game. The other big asset head coach Paul Tortorella's team has: senior Chase Anderson in net. The 6-foot-3, 200-pound goaltender is Andover's best chance at coming out on top through this brutal six-game stretch.
LATEST RANKINGS:Â Deerfield rises into top five after strong week
Thayer (12-7-1)
Why they'd be in:Â Despite early losses to St. George's and Phillips Andover, Thayer responded by beating Rivers, St. Andrew's College and Nobles. But the loss to Nobles on Wednesday night really hurt the Tigers. They have some tough sledding ahead with Governor's Academy and Belmont Hill as the big matchups in the final month.
Why they can make a run:Â They're not flashy, but head coach David Hymovitz's team doesn't have any holes. Seniors Tommy Anderson and Mason Shea, along with sophomores Tommy Wilkinson and Michael Federico have proven to be legitimate producers up front. The defense is dotted with seniors and juniors, most notably Matthew MacDonald and Peter Luecke. If junior Tyler Moschella can get hot, Thayer could be able to sneak into the Elite 8.
Tilton (13-5-2)
Why they'd be in:Â Tilton's 4-4 tie with Cushing actually moved it up in the projected JSPR. The Rams have had a great season, but had a rough stretch in early January where they fell to Milton Academy, Andover and Kimball Union. Their opponent's winning percentage so far (0.4444) is low and Holderness is its last big game remaining. Still, both of their losses to Kimball Union may be the reason why they're projected to be in the Small School Tournament.
Why they can make a run:Â Older teams tend to do well and Tilton is older, as its offense is led by postgrads Cam Fahey (Reading, Mass.), Peter Silverman (Winthrop, Mass.) and Anthony Lampasona (Franklin, Mass.), as well as senior Jeremy D'Souza and junior Max Gagnon (Byfield, Mass.). The other big advantage Tilton has is in net. Juniors Matt Wood (Southington, Conn.) and Hunter Marshall (Seabrook, N.H.) have split the net with both playing well. Wood's numbers, however, are outstanding: a 2.04 GAA and a .940 save percentage.
Rivers (13-5-1)
Why they'd be in: Losses to Kimball Union, Thayer, Brunswick, Holderness and St. Mark's give prep a good idea that Rivers is likely a high seed in the Small School Tournament. Games against Belmont Hill, St. George's and St. Mark's will give the Red Wings the chance to play spoiler — and potentially get closer to the Elite 8.
Why they can make a run:Â You already know what I'm going to say. The top line of Carter Meyer (Winchester, Mass.), Finn Sears (Medford, Mass.) and Sam Pandolfo (Winchester, Mass.) has operated at such a high level this season, with Meyer ranking first in the region in points per game (2.63) and second in total points (50). Sears and Pandolfo have been game-breakers too, as Sears has 40 points and Pandolfo has 26.
Holderness (15-3-1)
Why they'd be in:Â As of Thursday, Holderness actually looks to be in the Elite 8. But USHR's projected JSPR at the end of the season has the Bulls at No. 15. The Bulls do have some big wins against Pomfret, Thayer and Rivers, but a tough stretch awaits: two games against Kimball Union, Tilton and Dexter. I'm assuming the algorithm doesn't like Holderness' chances in those games. There's also the Lakes Region playoffs.
Why they can make a run:Â Head coach Alan Thompson's team has gotten production from everywhere. The leading scorer is senior defenseman Jeremy Poirier (Salem, N.H.) with six goals and 28 points. Six forwards have 20 or more points. Like I've mentioned with other teams, veterans matter when it comes to the playoffs and Holderness is dominated by seniors (and postgrad Connor Dozois). Junior Mark Bierwirth (Chelmsford, Mass.) has been terrific in net with a 1.97 GAA and a .921 save percentage.
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St. George's (11-7-2)
Why they'd be in:Â They likely won't be. The Dragons have losses against Dexter (twice), Avon Old Farms, Milton Academy (twice) and St. Mark's. Even if they won out through February, I'm not sure how they'd secure an Elite 8 spot. They're also 0-3-1 in their last four.
 Why they can make a run: While the Dragons don't have a lot of depth, they have higher-end talent. It wouldn't shock anyone if Providence College commits Everett Baldwin (East Providence, R.I.) and Marco Senerchia (Greenville, R.I.), along with senior Nathan Walsh (Mendon, Mass.), carry the team on defense. Up front, seniors Danny Buckley (Warwick, R.I.) and Colin Walsh (East Greenwich, R.I.), along with junior Max Donatelli (Barrington, R.I.) could carry the offense.
