Just a few days remain in the girls prep hockey regular season.
Most teams have just one game left before the brackets for the Elite 8, Large School and Small School tournaments come out on Sunday.
For some, this weekend will be about gaining another boost of momentum heading into the playoffs. Others are still jockeying for seeding and fighting to stay in or crack the Elite 8. Meanwhile, others will be looking to play spoiler and create some chaos.
Here’s where things stand if the playoffs were to start this very second, according to U.S. Hockey Report’s projections:
Chuck Vernon Elite 8 Tournament:
- Nobles (23-0-4)
- Williston Northampton (18-3-1)
- Phillips Andover (17-3-2)
- Deerfield (17-5-2)
- Loomis Chaffee (18-5-1)
- Kent (11-3-2)
- Tabor (15-7-3)
- St. Paul's (15-8-1)
Patsy K. Odden Large School Tournament:
- Choate (17-6-0)
- Westminster (13-7-3)
- Thayer (15-8-2)
- BB&N (12-9-3)
- Dexter Southfield (12-9-1)
- Exeter (12-10-2)
Dorothy Howard Small School Tournament:
- Groton (16-5-2)
- New Hampton (15-5-6)
- Rivers (12-8-2)
- Frederick Gunn (13-10-2)
- Tilton (17-8-2)
- Cushing (14-13-1)
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With all of that in mind, let's dive into the biggest storylines to watch in the final weekend.
1. Can the lower seeds remain in the Elite 8 picture?
Tabor and St. Paul's stayed put at No. 7 and 8, respectively, after each won on Wednesday. The Seawolves shut out St. George's, 3-0, while the Big Red took care of Proctor, 4-1. Tabor is in good shape, assuming it can take care of business against Berkshire on Saturday. Its surge has been impressive, especially after Tabor was on the ropes following a 1-4-2 stretch through the first chunk of January. Eric Long's group is 8-2-0 in their last 10. Talk about getting hot at the right time.
St. Paul's still controls its destiny heading into the Lakes Region playoffs with Choate and Groton nipping at their heels. The Big Red will face Tilton on Friday, whom they just shut out, 4-0, last week. A strong weekend is critical.
2. Can anyone on the outside make a last-second push?
Choate and Groton each kept themselves in the hunt with wins on Wednesday. The Wild Boars took care of Hotchkiss, 6-0, while the Zebras disposed of Thayer, 6-2. Westminster was right there, too, but Groton leapfrogged them in the JSPR formula after the Martlets tied Berkshire, 2-2, on Wednesday.
If Choate is to have any shot at slipping into the Elite 8, they'll need a win over Cushing on Saturday when they conclude the regular season. Laura DiCarlo's team will also need some help from Tilton against St. Paul's.
As for Groton, their odds are even slimmer. Tim LeRoy's group will need to take care of business at St. Mark's, and they'll need help from Cushing and Tilton to have any shot.
There's going to be plenty of scoreboard watching this weekend.
3. How will the top five seeds shake out?
Nobles and Williston are locks to hold down the top two seeds, but behind them is where things truly get interesting.
Andover, Deerfield and Loomis are all jockeying for positioning to round out the top five. Andover took down Loomis, 4-2, on Wednesday in a de facto battle for the No. 3 seed. After Deerfield took Williston to overtime, they leapfrogged Loomis for No. 4. The Pelicans also dropped the second of their last four games.
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Assuming Andover takes care of things against Exeter, the third seed is likely theirs to lose. As for the other two, Deerfield and Loomis will battle head-to-head on Saturday. After the Pelicans lost on Wednesday, that game became even more important than it already was with both now looking to seize the fourth seed and home-ice advantage in the quarterfinals.
Kent is lying in the weeds at No. 6 after they had been in the projected top five recently. Perhaps they could sneak back in if Loomis were to lose again.
4. Can Nobles remain undefeated?
The Bulldogs hit somewhat of a rough patch, at least by their standards this season, with a run of three ties in four games. They had to come back to settle for draws with Andover and BB&N in the last two weeks. But Tom Resor's team responded accordingly with three straight wins, including two shutouts and a big win over Tabor. They have a combined shutout of 18-2 in that span.
The "dip" for the Bulldogs is understandable, considering they've been cruising toward the No. 1 seed for most of the season. Aside from an undefeated run, there hasn't been a ton at stake for them, frankly, over this last stretch heading into the postseason.
They have one more game against Milton on Saturday. The Mustangs have had a disappointing season, but there are no easy wins. Just ask Tabor, who lost to Milton, 3-2, last month. I bet Ryan Stone's group would love to play spoiler against Nobles.
5. The regular season scoring race
This is more for fun than anything else. Who doesn't love a scoring race?
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Excluding 2021, the NEPSAC has had multiple 50-point scorers in four straight seasons, according to available statistics. Right now, four skaters are over the 40-point threshold.
Portsmouth Abbey senior Zoe Rosenberg and Williston senior Monique Lyons (Bedford, Mass.) are tied atop the NEPSAC with 48 points each. It's a career-high for Rosenberg, who smashed her previous best of 27 from last season. Groton sophomore Tina Scalese (West Boylston, Mass.) is third with 45 points, a career-high. She'll finish as the Zebras' scoring leader for the third straight season. Nobles senior defender Olivia Maffeo (Canton, Mass.) is fourth with 43 points, a career-high, and on track to pace the Bulldogs for the second year in a row.
The race for the lead and the 50-point threshold is likely down to Rosenberg and Lyons, but some crazy single-game performances have happened. Maybe Scalese or Maffeo have one in store.
Rosenberg also leads the NEPSAC in goals with 28, which is also a career high after she had 12 last year. Thayer junior Morgan McGathey (Braintree, Mass.) is behind her with 27, while Lyons has 25. Scalese (23), NYA's Sarah Moore (Libson, Maine; 24), Deerfield's Annie Dinges (Woodstock, Conn.; 22) and St. Paul's Cami Bell (Barre, Vt.; 20) are all over the 20-goal threshold as well.
