Elite 8 forecast: Who will make the prep school hockey playoff field?

Every year, only eight teams get a slot in the most coveted prep tournament: the Elite 8.

The best part? A lot more than just eight teams believe they've done enough to earn a spot, which makes the race to the finish line even more riveting.

This season has been even crazier, as more teams than ever have a legitimate shot at the Elite 8.

Picking the eight is a complicated process that involves an algorithm called the JSPR, similar to the PairWise rankings that help set the NCAA tournament field. I'll make my case for why each of the 16 teams in contention has a shot at being in the big dance and why some of them don't.

All of these teams were picked according to the projected final JSPR.

Cushing (22-1-4)

Why they'd be in: Cushing is a lock. The Penguins' only loss came against Thayer on Jan. 18. Since opening the season with three ties in four games, Cushing has won 21 of 23, with big victories coming against Holderness, Dexter Southfield, Loomis Chaffee, Salisbury and St. Mark's. Cushing also just took down Kimball Union twice in a home-and-home series.

Why they’d be out: None.

Why they can make a run: Cushing has a fun combination of top-tier players with depth on both offense and defense. While the Penguins will count on the usual suspects like Landan Resendes (Marlborough, Mass.) and Ethan Gardula (Princeton, Mass.) to produce, forwards like Jack Costanzo (Gloucester, Mass.), Emerson Marshall (Gloucester, Mass.), Linas Dedinas and Dan Markevych can be counted on to score. The same goes on defense with Zach Rizzo and Ryan Philbrick (Concord, Mass.) leading the way. Senior Cooper Rautenstrauch has proved to be a reliable backstop in net, sporting a 1.64 GAA and .930 save percentage. Last season's tough loss to Salisbury in the Elite 8 is still fresh in their minds.

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Nobles (17-3-4)

Why they'd be in: Nobles is also a lock. After a tie with Tabor and a loss against Hotchkiss in the first month of the season, Nobles went 13-0-1 in its next 14 games. Nobles "stumbled" of late, losing to Lawrence Academy and Belmont Hill and tying Governor's Academy and Milton. But Nobles has earned its spot.

Why they’d be out: None.

Why they can make a run: Nobles will go as far as goaltender Thatcher Bernstein (Brookline, Mass.) takes the team. The '06 is one of the most technically sound goalies I've seen in prep hockey this season and boasts a 2.17 goals-against average and a .915 save percentage. Don't count out Dennis Davidson (Newton, Mass.) and Ted MacAusland (Westwood, Mass.), fellow '06s, on offense.

Avon Old Farms (16-2-2)

Why they'd be in: It took until Jan. 7 for the Winged Beavers to lose a game. Their two losses came in a row, as the Winged Beavers fell to Taft and Hotchkiss. Since then, head coach John Gardner's team has gone 8-0-3.

Why they’d be out: None.

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Why they can make a run: Avon Old Farms is extremely strong up front, boasting a Player of the Year Candidate in Joe Connor (Amherst, N.H.), who has 36 points in 22 games. Fellow seniors Charlie Gollob (33 points) and Joe Odyniec (Ridgefield, Conn.), who has 31 points, have been vital too. Defensively, the Winged Beavers have been outstanding, only giving up 27 goals all season. That's in large part due to senior goalie Stephen Peck and how good the defense, led by seniors Jack Kennedy (Granby Mass.) and Jordin Palmer (Auburn, N.H.), has been in front of their goalie. Peck's numbers are stunning: a 1.23 GAA and .945 save percentage.

Belmont Hill (17-5-3)

Why they'd be in: Now things get interesting. Despite going 5-4-2 to open the season, the Sextants have rebounded well, going 12-1-1 since a Jan. 7 loss to St. Sebastian's. Belmont Hill lost a lot of players from its team that went all the way to the Elite 8 championship last season. A team with many new faces stepping up is clearly clicking at the right time, which should get the Sextants into the Elite 8.

Why they’d be out: Four of the five losses have come against teams on this list: Nobles, Brunswick, Milton and St. Sebastian's, so it's not like the Sextants have lost to bad teams. Belmont Hill has a challenging schedule remaining, with games against Tabor, Dexter and Westminster.

Why they can make a run: It's not every day that a freshman goalie is backstopping a team bound for the Elite 8. But J.J. Thibodeau (Waltham, Mass.) has been solid for Belmont Hill, posting a 2.13 GAA and .906 save percentage, although he did recently have a rough outing against Milton. The Sextants have a strong slew of forwards up front who play with pace and can produce, such as seniors Ronan O'Donnell (Fairfield, Conn.), Brock Cummings, Daniel Markham (Winchester, Mass.) and Dane Carter (Concord, Mass.). Those four all experienced last season's run.

Milton Academy (15-4-5)

Why they'd be in: Milton didn't exactly come out of nowhere this season, but it certainly surpassed expectations. The Mustangs won the Flood-Marr Tournament for the first time in 30 years with a big tie against Salisbury and a win over Kimball Union in the final. Other big wins have come against St. Mark's and St. George's.

Why they’d be out: Like Belmont Hill, it would take a lot for Milton to miss the Elite 8. While Milton has lost to Tabor twice, as well as Lawrence Academy and St. Paul's, it's taken care of business against other top teams.

Why they can make a run: Sam Caulfield (Needham, Mass.) has been on an incredible run in net, leading the region with his .956 save percentage. He's been a massive reason why Milton has had so much success. Another thing to think about: Paul Cannata is a very well-liked coach. His kids always play hard for him and with this being his final season with the Mustangs, his players are going to do everything they can to make a run.

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Westminster (15-7-0)

Why they'd be in: After a poor showing in the Flood-Marr Tournament, Westminster went 11-3 over its next 14 games, including wins against Taft and Salisbury. The remaining games include an away date with Frederick Gunn, and then Deerfield and Belmont Hill round out the schedule. Strong performances in those will give Westminster an edge into the Elite 8.

Why they’d be out: Going 0-4 against Kimball Union and Nobles (teams on this list) wasn't great and then being outscored by Avon Old Farms, 13-3, over two losses down the stretch doesn't look amazing either. Westminster feels like a bubble team.

Why they can make a run: Ryan Shaw (East Longmeadow, Mass.), a junior '05, has been outstanding, amassing 14 goals and 36 points to lead his team in points by quite a bit. Can Shaw, along with senior forwards Wade Volo (North Conway, N.H.) and Rowan Masse (Manchester, Conn.), junior forward Brian Judge and sophomore forward Blake Burke (Trumbull, Conn.) push Westminster past other teams if the Martlets make the Elite 8? It's not a sure bet, but it's also not crazy.

Taft (16-7-0)

Why they'd be in: Despite going 7-13-2 last season, Taft has mightily improved. The Rhinos opened the season with a big win, taking down reigning champion Salisbury, 3-2, in overtime. Handing Avon Old Farms its first loss on Jan. 7 also gave Taft a big boost. The remaining schedule isn't too tough with Trinity-Pawling and Hotchkiss rounding things out. For the most part, Taft has taken care of business, which means it's totally possible it wins both of those games.

Why they’d be out: If Taft doesn't take care of business in those games, the Rhinos' path toward the Elite 8 would narrow. Losses to Westminster (6-2) and Northfield Mount Hermon (5-2) don't look great on their résumé.

Why they can make a run: A hot goalie can carry a team a long way no matter the level of hockey. If there was ever a goalie at the prep level who could carry his team through a gauntlet of difficult matchups, it's Rudy Guimond. He's done it multiple times throughout the season and despite facing a ton of shots, his .941 save percentage ranks sixth in the region.

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Brunswick (16-7-0)

Why they'd be in: Winning the Kevin Mutch Christmas Tournament and taking down St. Sebastian's in the championship certainly helps. Big wins after that came against Belmont Hill, Salisbury and Frederick Gunn, twice. Brunswick has just one game left in the season when it faces Trinity-Pawling on Friday.

Why they’d be out: Brunswick has made a pretty good case. Yes, there were some bumps in the road opening the season, such as losses to Loomis Chaffee, Kent and Westminster. But the Bruins have done their job well in the second half.

Why they can make a run: Head coach Mike Kennedy is fortunate to have some big guns up front producing. Drew DellaSalla, an '06 committed to Harvard, and Sean Gibbons (Fairfield, Conn.), an '05, have both posted terrific seasons, as they're tied for the team lead in points with 38 apiece. Senior forward Eli Friedman sits right behind them with 37. Senior forward James Shannon (Greenwich, Conn.) and junior forward Brendan Giles (Ridgefield, Conn.) have provided nice scoring as well. Those five will be tasked with leading Brunswick if it makes it.

St. Mark's (19-5-1)

Why they'd be in: The Lions have taken care of business this season. The knock against them is always that their schedule isn't tough enough but credit to them for taking advantage of that. The big wins came against Dexter, Tabor and St. George's. They have dates with St. George's, BB&N and Groton scheduled for the rest of the year. If they win all three, St. Mark's will be in a solid spot for when the Elite 8 decisions are made.

Why they’d be out: Because the schedule is the way it is, when St. Mark's does play a top opponent, the game is amplified. Losses to Milton, Belmont Hill and Cushing won't help.

https://twitter.com/CarlCorazzini/status/1626039922539827201?s=20

Why they can make a run: Losing Richard Gallant (Concord, Mass.) to a broken wrist was massive, but Carl Corazzini's team has other forwards who can keep the scoring afloat: seniors Sebbie Johnson, Jimmy Lyver (Grafton, Mass.) and Damon Myers (Worcester, Mass.) and juniors Jonathan Balzarini (Milford, Mass.), Andrew Gibbons (South Kingstown, R.I.) and Austin Borggaard (Worcester, Mass.). Defenseman Calvin Beard (Southborough, Mass.) has also been a key part of the scoring with 31 points.

Tabor (13-7-5)

Why they'd be in: Tabor came out of the gate very hot — 8-1-2 over its first 11 games. In there were wins over Kent, Frederick Gunn and Milton and a tie with Nobles. Recently, Tabor took down St. Sebastian's, 5-4, and St. George's, 3-2. If it can continue winning against Belmont Hill and Lawrence Academy to close the season, Tabor will be in better shape for Elite 8 contention.

Why they’d be out: Up until the recent wins over St. Sebastian's and St. George's, the wheels were falling off. Since Jan. 7, the Seawolves are 5-6-3. Slumps happen, of course, but with the Elite 8 being the best of the best and so many other teams in contention, it could hurt Tabor come bracket time.

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Why they can make a run: Hopefully, their worst hockey is behind them. Senior forward Jack DesRuisseaux (Manchester, N.H.) has been sensational for the Seawolves with his team-high 18 goals and 33 points. One name to keep an eye on no matter which level of the playoffs Tabor ends up in is Keanan Dewberry. His speed and compete are game-changers and will cause fits for opposing teams. Tabor will also need goalie Gus Ackerman (Marion, Mass.) to be at his best.

Salisbury (12-6-5)

Why they'd be in: Salisbury appears to have found itself recently, going 4-0-2 in its last six games with big wins coming over Frederick Gunn, Berkshire and Taft. In the last two games,  the Crimson Knights tied Loomis Chaffee and Avon Old Farms.

Why they’d be out: Salisbury lost a lot from last year's Elite 8 championship team, which showed after the Christmas break. From Jan. 6 to Jan. 21, Salisbury went 1-4-2 with key losses coming to Brunswick, Cushing and Westminster. 

Why they can make a run: The Crimson Knights don't have an overwhelming strength this year, but they do have one big advantage: head coach Andrew Will. His teams always find ways to win. While they probably don't make it into this year's Elite 8, the Crimson Knights will be a tough out in the postseason.

Dexter Southfield (15-5-7)

Why they'd be in: Dexter completely turned its season around. Dexter won its last seven games and since losing to St. Andrew's College in the True Prep Cup, it's 9-0-5. While Dexter probably won't bounce off the bubble into the Elite 8, it's still getting hot at the right time for whichever postseason tournament it finds itself in.

Why they’d be out: The only teams it's beaten with winning records are Stanstead College (twice), Proctor, St. George's and Portsmouth Abbey. Opening the season 4-4-1 also doesn't help its case.

Why they can make a run: If Dexter was to make the Elite 8, it would have to rely heavily on beating teams in low-scoring games. Defensively, Dexter has been good, only allowing 45 goals over 27 games. Top defenders Sean Keohane (Milton, Mass.), Mick Frechette (Weston, Mass.) and Jonathan Lanza (Winthrop, Mass.) are all veterans and have the talent. Could those three, along with goalies Paul Dalessio (Burlington, Mass.) and Max Gatti (Winchester, Mass.), do enough to send Dexter on an incredible run through the Elite 8? It's a huge ask, but playoff hockey is playoff hockey for a reason.

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Holderness (17-5-1)

Why they'd be in: Holderness has mostly taken care of business. It's not the strongest season in the Lakes Region, but Holderness has made the most of it. Its biggest statement? Taking down Kimball Union, 4-3, on Feb. 3 and then tying them eight days later, 2-2. A strong performance in the Lakes Region Tournament would go a long way in helping Holderness sneak into the Elite 8.

Why they’d be out: Three of Holderness' five losses came to sub-.500 teams in New Hampton (twice) and North Yarmouth Academy. No matter what, Holderness will be a bubble team.

Why they can make a run: Senior netminder Evan Plunkett continuing his strong play would be vital to Holderness having any success in the Elite 8. Plunkett helped get Holderness to last season's Elite 8, so he knows what it takes. While no one is averaging over a point per game, Holderness does have some solid veteran forwards. Lessons from last year's first-round loss to Kimball Union will need to be put to use if Holderness is to find itself in the Elite 8.

St. Sebastian's (13-7-4)

Why they'd be in: The Arrows went 10-3-2 in their first 15 games with a big win over Belmont Hill and a tie against Tabor. Although they've stumbled of late, the Arrows did tie Milton and St. Mark's. St. Sebastian's plays in the difficult ISL Keller division, so it's far from an easy schedule.

Why they’d be out: St. Sebastian's has slipped up of late, going 3-4-2 in its last nine games. The Arrows have lost to a handful of teams on this list: Nobles (twice), Belmont Hill, Tabor, Milton and Brunswick. They're very much a bubble team.

Why they can make a run: Their tough schedule certainly has the Arrows battle-tested for March. Junior forwards Matt Cataldo (Norfolk, Mass.) and Isaac Mitchell (Harvard, Mass.), along with sophomore '07 Teddy Mutryn (Norwell, Mass.), are game-changing point producers. Sophomore forward Ben Merrill (Hingham, Mass.) has emerged as a scoring threat this year. If the Arrows are to have any success if they make the Elite 8, those four must be firing on all cylinders.

Kimball Union (20-8-1)

Why they'd be in: Kimball Union won 10 straight games from Jan. 8 to Feb. 1, as the Wildcats took care of business in the Lakes Region. An early, 2-1 win over Kent was also important.

Why they’d be out: Kimball Union has struggled against teams on this list, losing to Nobles, Milton, Holderness and, recently, Cushing on a back-to-back.

Why they can make a run: Tim Whitehead's team has some really strong forwards, headlined by Jackson Kyrkostas (Windham, N.H.), who leads the region in points with 51 in 31 games. Juniors Jack Sadowski (Arlington, Mass.) and Sam LeDrew have also been key producers. Dan Heroux is strong enough in net to carry Kimball Union if it finds itself in the Elite 8.

Frederick Gunn (17-9-4)

Why they'd be in: Craig Badger's team opened the season with seven straight wins, including big ones against Berkshire (twice) and Kent. Frederick Gunn has also won four of its last five games.

Why they’d be out: From Jan. 21 to Feb. 10, Frederick Gunn went 1-5-2. The Gunnery has lost to a bunch of teams on this list, including Tabor, Salisbury, Taft and Brunswick twice.

Why they can make a run: It's hard to imagine Frederick Gunn getting into the Elite 8. No matter the playoff tournament it makes, it will greatly benefit from having Alex LoGeurcio (Monroe, Conn.), Jacob Rothman and Mark Pizzo (Monroe, Conn.) leading the way up front. This is an older team,  and that's an advantage over most other teams.