It’s time for some predictions.
The 2025 NEPSAC girls Small School tournament kicks off on Wednesday. No. 1 New Hampton is shooting for its third title in a row.
For those keeping score at home, I came out firing in my debut NEPSAC tournament predictions last season. I went a perfect 7-for-7 with the Elite 8, 4-for-5 in the Large School tournament and 3-for-5 with the Small School bracket, making for 14-for-17.
Should be nothing to it again, right?
Wrong. Playoff hockey is unpredictable, especially in one-game, win-or-go-home scenarios. Upsets always happen, but which matchups will provide them? Will it all go chalk?
Let's get into the predictions for the Small School quarterfinals.
No. 1 New Hampton vs. No. 8 Frederick Gunn
The Huskies enter the tournament as the clear favorites. (Thanks for the tip on the No. 1 seed, Sherlock). It's clear why. Craig Churchill's group is one of the deepest rosters outside of the Elite 8, and New Hampton also has one of the top offenses in prep.
They've got high-end talent throughout the lineup, whether it's one of the NEPSAC's top scorers in Kennedy Walker or the region's most productive defender in True Thompson. The depth around them at each position is strong, be it Reese Luber (Norwood, Mass.), Trinity Walsh or others. Plus, Elizabeth Vincent has been strong in net.
PREP BRACKETS: Girls Elite 8 | Girls Large School | Girls Small School | Boys Elite 8 | Boys Large School | Boys Small School
The key for Frederick Gunn will be timely scoring and goaltending. Emily Krauss is having a terrific season in the crease, and they'll need her to steal a win. Daniel Allen's team will also need its top producers in Maria Gilshannon (Woodbridge, Conn.), Sofia Cuozzo (Guilford, Conn.) and Izzy Blake (Martha's Vineyard, Mass.) to cash in at big moments.
If Gunn gets those things, they could pull off an upset, but I don't see it. New Hampton is just too strong all around.
Prediction: New Hampton wins, 5-2
No. 2 Rivers vs. No. 7 Mount St. Charles
Rivers and Mount met once already this season, and the Red Wings won handily, 7-2.
Mount has some high-scoring producers, but Rivers is the deeper, more balanced team. You've got Lindsay Morin (Weston, Mass.), Brooke Bartlett (Wayland, Mass.), Simone Burns (Winchester, Mass.) and more up front. On defense, they've got good puck-movers as well as a good shutdown option in Calleigh Bellow (Brighton, Mass.). Chloe Chitkara (Wayland, Mass.) is a good two-way presence up front, too, who could help shut down Mount. Keith McLean's group has an edge in net as well. They're also much more battle-tested with a opponent winning percentage of 0.5443, compared to Mount's 0.4698.
For Mount, it's all about catching lightning in a bottle. Whether it's Alexa Buco (Cranston, R.I.), Kaylin O'Connor (Smithfield, R.I.), Madison Caramante (Glocester, R.I.) or Keira Goffe (Smithfield, R.I.), they have the ingredients for quick-strike, high-scoring offense. With a shorter bench than Rivers, Sophia Vingi's team needs its top producers to step up early on.
Rivers' depth on both sides of the puck shows through here.
Prediction:Â Rivers wins, 5-3
No. 3 Governor's vs. No. 6 St. Mark's
Things start to get a little more interesting here, though. Governor's and St. Mark's settled for a 1-1 tie earlier this season.
Both have good goaltending with Liz Loung (Framingham, Mass.) for Gov's or Boston University commit Jackie Wright (Walpole, Mass.) for St. Mark's. Each team also has its fair share of skaters making contributions offensively.
SMALL SCHOOL TOURNAMENT: Why each team could win
The difference (and ultimate advantage) for Gov's is their ability to score at a higher level than the Lions. Both sides have given up 61 goals-against this season, but Governor's Academy has a big edge in total offense with 70 goals-for, compared to 43. Whether it's Brooke Carlson (North Andover, Mass.), Elena Gordon, Lana Hardin (Tyngsboro, Mass.) or others like Ella Tucker (Middlebury, Vt.) or Parker Roenick (Exeter, N.H.), they've got key depth up front.
St. Mark's can play them closely, as we saw earlier this season, but ultimately, Governor's gets the extra goal.
Prediction: Governor's wins, 2-1
No. 4 Lawrence Academy vs. No. 5 St. George's
This was another tough pick. I can see the path to the upset for St. George's.
Maddie Lahah (North Attleboro, Mass.) could very likely be the best player on the ice. That's a real plus for the Dragons as she can take over shifts and create chances for herself and others in middle ice. St. George's also has gotten a little more production outside of its top line.
But Lawrence is more battle-tested, and they've got an advantage in the crease, whether it's Olivia Beyor (Candia, N.H.) or Olivia Doucette (Hamilton, Mass.) starting in net. Their top forwards like Gena Cookinham (Gilmanton Iron Works, N.H.), Ava Glab and Kayla Rice (Walpole, Mass.) can easily match the Dragons' top line, too.
I see this one coming down to one goal as well.
Prediction:Â Lawrence Academy wins, 3-2
