Going into the NEPSAC boys playoffs, the Large School field looked to be the most difficult to predict. All eight teams were legitimate contenders.
Well, through the quarterfinals, that's held.
Three of the four matchups were upsets, with No. 8 Berkshire taking down No. 1 Nobles, No. 7 Phillips Andover beating No. 2 Lawrence Academy and No. 5 Kent getting a win over No. 4 Deerfield.
Props to me for picking two of those. I didn't, however, select Andover beating Lawrence Academy, 6-2. That was a bit of a shock. I also picked Belmont Hill to beat Dexter Southfield. And while the Sextants held 2-0 and 3-2 leads, Dexter stormed back to win, 6-3.
So I went 2-for-4 on my Large School picks. Overall, I went 9-for-12 across all three playoff fields. Not to brag but...I have a pretty good handle on the future.
Let's dive into the two Large School semifinal matchups.
COMPLETE BRACKETS: Elite 8 | Large School | Small School
No. 3 Dexter Southfield vs. No. 7 Phillips Andover
Both teams enter Saturday with a whole lot of confidence.
Andover enters having gone 4-0-1 in its last five games. That win over Lawrence Academy featured everything going right for the Big Blue, as they scored six goals (including a four-point day from Dartmouth commit Grayden Robertson-Palmer) and got a 44-save effort from senior goalie Ben Skowronek.
Dexter just took down Belmont Hill for the second game in a row, getting a resilient performance in the third period. Freshman Noah Survilas (Winthrop, Mass.) continued his ascension to becoming one of the best players in the region, scoring two goals and adding an assist on sophomore Jake Assad's (Franklin, Mass.) eventual game-winning tally. Prior to Wednesday night, Dexter won four of its previous five games.
QUARTERFINALS: 18 takeaways from the Elite 8 quarterfinal matchups
These two teams also met on Feb. 3 with Andover narrowly getting a 5-4 win. You guys know how I feel about teams playing each other in the playoffs after meeting in the regular season. While Dexter defied that with Belmont Hill, that's exactly what happened with Salisbury and Brunswick, as well as Kent and Deerfield.
I also give the edge in talent to Dexter. Head coach Danny Donato's team is a bit deeper than Andover.
Prediction: Dexter wins, 5-3.
No. 5 Kent vs. No. 8 Berkshire
Offense is the name of the game with both of these teams.
Berkshire went off on Wednesday, taking down No. 1 Nobles, 8-5, and leading, 6-2, midway through the second period. Berkshire was a bit fortunate that Nobles senior goalie Tyler Bloomfield was out for Wednesday's game with an injury.
Still, the Bears' offense is legit. They have a plethora of impactful scorers. Senior Antoine Gauthier and juniors Evan Regan (Acton, Mass.) and Deven Hikspoors all had three-point games against Nobles. Junior Duncan Thompson, who has 43 points this season, had a goal and an assist in the win.
But Kent also has a top-10 offense in the region, and that was on display in its 5-1 win over Deerfield on Wednesday. Senior Owen Mahar posted four points, while Gio DiGiulian (South Burlington, Vt.), a Cornell commit, had three. On defense, senior Teddy Mallgrave had a goal and two assists. Senior goalie Aidan Hopewell held strong with 26 saves.
ELITE 8: Predicting the semifinal winners in the Elite 8Â
So both teams have high-end top players. Both have similar numbers of total goals scored (129 vs. 125). Both have similar numbers of goals against (82 vs. 78). And while Berkshire has the higher goals for and lower goals against, Kent has a better opponents' winning percentage (0.5364 vs. 0.5134).
Hmm. Where could the X-factor lie? Let's check the schedule...
These two teams met on Feb. 7. Berkshire won, 5-4, by scoring five unanswered goals over the final two periods to overcome a four-goal deficit.
Prediction:Â Kent wins, 6-4.
