The New England boys prep Large School Tournament begins on Wednesday with quarterfinal games.
While all eight teams prepare with film and practice between now and then, I also have a job to do: predictions.
I did pretty well predicting quarterfinal and semifinal games last season. Across the three tournaments, I went 13-5 through the first two rounds. It was unfortunate because championship day never happened. They never played those three games.
OK maybe they did. And I went 0-for-3. Put in my place by Canterbury, Kent and Kimball Union. Swept right out of the building. Heckled (rightfully) by parents.
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This is a new tournament and a clean slate.
Here's what I'm predicting for the Large School quarterfinals.
No. 1 Belmont Hill vs. No. 8 Kent
In my initial video reaction to the brackets on Sunday, I teased that of all the No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchups, this one has the best chance for an upset.
Belmont Hill had two questionable losses to Milton Academy and Westminster (on the last day of the season) in the final weeks of February. Kent was my preseason No. 10 team, and while the Lions underperformed, they still have a slew of high-end talent. Goalie Jacoby Weiner (Riverside, Conn.) and defenseman Ryan Poirier (Salem, N.H.) are both committed to Harvard. Forwards Jack Broderick (Cornell), Stefano Pietrantonio (Dartmouth) and Maddox Boyle (Colgate) are all committed. Defenseman Nathan DiChiara (Fairfield, Conn.) was on NHL Central Scouting to begin the season.
But the playoffs aren't about the number of commits a team has and Belmont Hill isn't short on high-end talent either. Defenseman Evan Jones (Arlington, Mass.) and forwards Jake Tavares (Belmont, Mass.), two of the team's top producers, are committed to Dartmouth. Sophomore forward David Bosco (Winchester, Mass.) leads the team in points with 43 and should have no shortage of Division 1 suitors this summer. Senior defenseman Grayson Cohen (Weston, Mass.) and junior forward Patrick Woods (Charlestown, Mass.) are also legitimate Division 1 prospects.
Head coach Brian Phinney can't go wrong with senior Keagin Wilson (Hingham, Mass.) or junior JJ Thibodeau (Waltham, Mass.) in net.
Prediction:Â Belmont Hill wins, 5-2.
No. 2 Avon Old Farms vs. No. 7 Thayer
Thayer was in the mix for the Elite 8 in early January and projected to be a contender down the stretch. Instead, the Tigers went 5-8-0 in their final 13 games and became a low seed in the Large School Tournament. Head coach David Hymovitz's team has some impressive offensive depth with seniors Tommy Anderson (Braintree, Mass.), Mason Shea and Kevin Delay (Hingham, Mass.), and sophomores Michael Federico (Hanover, Mass.), Tommy Wilkinson (Braintree, Mass.) and Ty Hymovitz (Needham, Mass.).
ROUTE TO A TITLE: The path for every Large School team | The path for every Small School team
But is that enough to combat Avon at Avon? I have my doubts.
While the Winged Beavers struggled from late January to mid-February by going 2-5-0, they finished 3-0-1 and were a top-two team for most of the first two months. They've given up the fewest goals in prep (50) and boast junior Anthony Palmer (Lynnfield, Mass.) in net. High-end players like Dartmouth commit Indiana Grossbard (Darien, Conn.) and Providence commit Cooper Snee also make this a tough matchup for Thayer.
Prediction:Â Avon Old Farms wins, 4-1.
No. 3 Phillips Andover vs. No. 6 Trinity-Pawling
Phillips Andover has been better defensively, but Trinity-Pawling has been the much better offensive team.
Trinity-Pawling senior Liam Lefebvre, a Vermont commit, ranks third in the region in points per game at 2.28. He has 57 points, while junior Andrew Migliore isn't far behind with 51. Senior Nick Peragine has 42. That trio has been dominant.
Andover boasts Dartmouth commit Grayden Robertson-Palmer and Yale commit Rui Han, two of the best offensive players in prep, as well as sophomore '08 Alex Theodore who has a bunch of promise. But what worries me with Andover is senior goalie Chase Anderson (Marblehead, Mass.), who was a star at the Flood-Marr, has been inconsistent in the second half.
I like the upset here.
Prediction:Â Trinity-Pawling wins, 5-4.
No. 4 Governor's Academy vs. No. 5 Westminster
These two teams have had very different seasons. Governor's was middle of the pack in the first half, got hot in late January and then went 4-5-0 down the stretch. Westminster, however, went 4-8-1 in its first 13 games and then soared into the Large School Tournament by going 9-2-1 in the second half.
Governor's has the better offensive numbers, while Westminster has been better with goals against.
FULL PREVIEW: How each team looks heading into the Elite 8
This game will come down to the netminders. Westminster's Jack Fichthorn (Darien, Conn.) has arguably been the top goalie in the second half and boasts a 2.47 GAA and a .927 save percentage on the season. Zach Ericson (Yarmouth, Maine) has been a rock in the net for Governor's Academy with a 2.63 GAA and a .917 save percentage.
So, who wins? I'll go with the hotter team.
Prediction:Â Westminster wins, 2-0.
