In Part 1, we covered the percentage of players who made it to the college they committed to, how many eventually transferred or left and the number of players with prior commitments.
This time, we're going to get a bit more situation-specific.
We start with August commitments, which are a hot topic right now. Committing in August has become more common and something players aim for. There is a belief that players who commit in August, often right when they become eligible to do so, have a lower chance of making it to that college.
Is that true?
We also dive into goaltending numbers. After all, there is only one net. And, as illustrated in this piece on developmental paths and techniques for young goalies from June, it is extremely competitive for collegiate netminders.
Finally, we take a look at the number of Division 1 commits who ended up at the Division 3 level.
78.41 percent of those who committed in August ended up where they initially committed
There's a caveat to this number that should be noted. While most of the players who committed in August became eligible on that Aug. 1, it's impossible to go back and find what grade each player was in when they committed.
Still, 69 of the 88 players who committed in August made it to the school they committed to.
"It might be a little higher than I would expect," Yale men's assistant coach Joe Howe said. "That's the longest projection as far as looking at a player and longest time before they get into school."
Many of those August commits are often the top players at that time in their birth year.
"You're assuming that the top 10 kids in the country are going to commit on Aug. 1," Providence men's associate head coach Joel Beal said. "They're probably going to commit to the blue blood programs. They're on the right development path. They're probably national team players. There's probably a lower probablity that maybe those kids fail or things change at the school. You don't want to call them safe commitments, but I think you're probably looking at the highest percentage of kids getting in."
Schools have taken notice. The number of Aug. 1 commits has grown in the last two summers. Programs that aren't necessarily blue bloods have increasingly been committing rising juniors in high school, which has widened the number of commits.
GEARING UP: What should recruiting prospects be doing in the lead-up to their Aug. 1s?Â
"I think a lot of schools are seeing that and saying 'Why don't we commit eight?' or 'Let's commit seven,'" Beal said. "Those are the guys that are driving this program in the right direction. Let's keep going back to that well."
It's also why that 78.41 percent is likely to go down in future seasons.
"As that number grows to maybe the top 50 or 60 players in the country at 15 or 16 years old, you'll see a lot more variability in those kids actually ending up at the schools they commit to," Beal said.
87.71 percent of goalies made it to their college commitment destination
At first glance, this number is high and it shocked me. You see so many goalies commit to Division 1 schools and think, "Well, there are only 64 nets."
But goalies are competitive. They grow up in a youth hockey environment where they're either battling for, or splitting the net.
"I think a lot of them are willing to go even if there's a goalie ahead of them or if there's a goalie tandem," Beal said. "They are willing to at least compete for a year or maybe two years before opting to make a switch."
Most goalies entering college hockey don't expect to play as freshmen. Jacob Fowler at Boston College and Michael Hrabal at UMass aren't the norm.
It's those sophomore, junior and seniors seasons where the next statistic becomes relevant.
34 percent of those goalies transferred or left
It's a high number, but far from a surprise. Goalie prospects know they probably won't play their freshman seasons, but then, rightfully, often get agitated when there isn't a path to starting as an upperclassman.
"If the guy in front of them is playing better, it might be hard to get the net," Harvard men's assistant coach James Marcou said. "They want to go somewhere where there's more of an opportunity."
BETWEEN THE PIPES: What are the best developmental paths and techniques for young goalies?
This is a big reason why the goalie market has been so hot in the transfer portal.
"I feel like if there's a goalie who is not happy with his situation, they seem quicker to go into the portal because there's only one net and playing time is so critical for development," Beal said.
"I think our job is to make sure that every player that is coming into our program believes they're going to be a valued member of our program. It gets kids to believe and want to work and want to compete. I think if it doesn't go right at that position, they're just a little quicker to make a move."
Some of the goalies hitting the portal showed streaks of higher potential in limited action. A great example of this was T.J. Semptimphelter. As a freshmen in 2021-22, he played eight games for Northeastern in star goalie Devon Levi's absence. But Levi still had another full year to play, meaning Semptimphelter would be back on the bench.
He transferred to Arizona State and was its starter for the past two seasons. This offseason, he transferred to North Dakota to be the Fighting Hawks' No. 1 guy.
"Shopping for starting goalies [in the transfer portal] is huge," Howe said. "Teams see they can bring in an experienced kids that's played at the college level. They feel more comfortable to bring them in over an 18- or 19-year old that's having success in junior."
5.4 percent of all commits eventually played Division 3
Of the 538 players who made it to college hockey or aged out of junior, 29 eventually played Division 3 hockey.
"There are so many great Division 3 schools, especially being out east and exposed to some of those that if that's a possibility to get a great education from that, I'd expect [the percentage] to be higher," Howe said. "But I think there's some naivety there as well with kids not understanding that Division 3 hockey is really good hockey. And it's not just because at one point, you were a Division 1 prospect or made it onto a Division 1 campus. That doesn't mean you're going to go to Division 3 and dominate by any means."
PART 1: How many recruits actually make it to play college hockey? And how many eventually transferred?Â
And with the popularity of the transfer portal, there will likely be more players opting for Division 3 — or the other way around.
"Division 3 hockey is really good," Marcou said. "There are probably kids playing Division 1 that should be playing Division 3 and there are probably kids playing Division 3 that should be playing Division 1."
