The word of the boys prep season so far is unexpected.
"Crazy prep season this year," a head coach said to me recently. "Never seen anything even close."
It’s been chaos since the first games of the season. The holiday tournaments produced some wild winners. Even the best teams have warts.
The parity is apparent. Anybody can beat anybody, and I don’t expect that to change. Even teams fighting for spots in the Large and Small School fields are going toe-to-toe with Elite 8 contenders.
That's what made this exercise so difficult. The reality is, there haven't been many "As good as advertised" teams. Limiting the number of "surprises" to just three teams was difficult because there are so many teams that could be labeled as that, for good and bad reasons.
Here’s a look at what we’ve learned this season — and what might lie ahead.
As good as advertised
1. Dexter Southfield (15-2-2): Our preseason No. 1 team is still No. 1. And in this kind of season, that’s saying something. Dexter hasn’t been without its hiccups: It fell to Kent and tied Frederick Gunn at the Exeter Invitational, and tied Thayer at the beginning of the Watkins Tournament. Outside of that, however, Dexter has dominated. Senior defenseman Myles Brosnan (Winchester, Mass.) has been outstanding with a team-leading 34 points in the first 19 games. Up front, senior forward Nick D’Olympio (Rockland, Mass.), Jack Fitzpatrick (Canton, Mass.) and Owen McHale (Charlestown, Mass.) have broken out.
READ MORE: 12 standouts, takeaways from St. Sebastian’s win over Governor’s Academy
2. Avon Old Farms (12-1-1): With all the chaotic results in prep, Avon Old Farms has just taken care of business. The only loss for the Winged Beavers came at the hands of Kent at the Avon Old Farms Christmas Classic, yet they still went on to win the tournament. Sophomore forward Ethan Gingeleskie and senior forward Liam Donnelly have both broken out, while senior forward Tucker Harris and junior forward Nico Ciardiello have continued to be top producers. The big story, however, is senior goalie Anthony Palmer (Lynnfield, Mass.), who has been spectacular again.
3. St. Mark’s (13-2-0): While the Lions lost to Tabor on Jan. 10 and Belmont Hill last Wednesday, they have been dominant outside of that. Senior forward Evan Nee (Arlington, Mass.) and juniors Caiden Pellegrino (Uxbridge, Mass.), and Will Manchuso (Concord, Mass.) have all averaged more than two points per game. Numerous players outside of those four have stepped up with secondary scoring, and both sophomores in net — Aaron Alves-Thomas (Uxbridge, Mass.) and Julian Herrara (Providence, R.I.) — have played well. So far, our choice of St. Mark’s for the cover of the New England Hockey Journal season preview issue has aged well. The Lions' two biggest storylines down the stretch will be beating good teams and how their defense holds up.
Three surprises
1. Tabor (11-4-0): I expected Tabor to be a consistent “Next 15” team throughout the season, but the Seawolves instead have forced themselves safely into the top 10. Outside of one-goal losses to Nobles, Avon Old Farms and Milton, plus a two-goal loss to Belmont Hill on Saturday, head coach Gerry Dineen’s team has taken care of business. While senior forwards Ethan Travis (Narragansett, R.I.) and Colvin Callahan (Hull, Mass.) have been top producers, Tabor has gotten high-end play from senior defensemen Olivier Benoit, Owen Carter (Warwick, R.I.), Marcello Martinelli (North Providence, R.I.) and Alec Dzavik (Hingham, Mass.). The big advantage Tabor always has is junior goalie Vinnie D’Urso (Andover, Mass.). As of Monday, they are No. 8 in JSPR.
READ MORE: What would boys prep hockey look like without juniors and NTDP?
2. Canterbury (11-4-2): The Saints have been one of the biggest surprise teams so far. Their biggest wins have come over Hotchkiss, Berkshire, Loomis Chaffee, Cushing and Williston Northampton. Senior forward Seamus McMakin (Burlington, Mass.) has eight goals and a team-leading 23 points in 17 games. Meanwhile, senior defenseman Tommy Browne has broken out with seven goals and 21 points, including a hat trick against Lawrence Academy in early January. Senior Cody Hew has been vital in net with a 2.22 goals-against average and a .939 save percentage.
3. Hotchkiss (7-3-2): I’m not sure anyone had Hotchkiss winning the Flood-Marr Tournament, but the Bearcats made a statement, beating Kimball Union, Westminster and Deerfield to secure the title. Without question, Hotchkiss’ biggest strength is in net with junior goalie Neilan Johnson, who carries a 1.75 GAA and a .941 save percentage. Head coach Mike Doyle’s team has a nice mix of seniors and juniors to make up its core. The good news is that top juniors like Ryan Murray, Jake Harrison and Austin Groves should be impactful this season and even better next year, which means Hotchkiss shouldn't be going away any time soon.
Three questions
1. Who will win the Elite 8? While this is the biggest question every season, it feels more pertinent this year. It’s wide-open, and anyone could win. But there's a large part of me that feels like one of the top three teams in JSPR — Avon Old Farms, Salisbury and Dexter — will end up hoisting the title. Despite the ups and downs of this season, those three teams have proved to be top squads. We haven't touched on Salisbury much in this story, but the Crimson Knights have become known for slow starts. They're 14-2-1, and their only loss in the last 10 games was to a high-end Culver Academy team.
2. Who is the biggest sleeper Elite 8 team? I'm going to pick teams that aren't in JSPR's top eight as of Monday afternoon (Avon, Salisbury, Dexter, St. Mark's, Belmont Hill, Hotchkiss, Kimball Union and Tabor). Holderness (No. 9), Thayer (No. 10), Canterbury (No. 12) and Brunswick (No. 13) stick out the most to me. If Holderness performs well in its matchups with Kimball Union in February, that will drastically improve its chances. Canterbury is an older team, while Thayer has a good number of high-end players. Brunswick has been in the Elite 8 the last three seasons and has a deep roster in front, in back and in net.
READ MORE: The latest boys prep rankings
3. Which 2010 birth-year players will make the strongest case for the NTDP? It was pretty clear with the ’09s who would be NTDP candidates. Entering this prep season, it wasn’t known. But a handful of ’10s have put themselves into contention with strong prep play. Sam Lee (Woburn, Mass.) is tied for the Belmont Hill lead in goals (11) and points (21). St. Sebastian’s forward Jack Queally (Milton, Mass.) has been the top producer for the Arrows with 10 goals and 18 points. Another ’10 forward who has worked his way into this conversation is Carter Felt (Natick, Mass.), who leads Rivers in goals (nine) and is tied for the team lead in points with 16.
